We begin to see more headlines about workouts and loan restructurings. Donald Trump is left with 10% of his name-branded Atlantic City casinos, the most recent buyer of the New York Times building near Times Square got left holding the bag and takes a bath along with some big name lenders. Bankers give up on extend and pretend and foreclose on a Chicago retail developer. Simon, the number one mall REIT, circles General Growth as the number two mall REIT moves closer to emerging from a deflating bankruptcy. The logjam in the credit markets slowly starts to break down as both borrowers and their lenders begin to face up to their significant losses. Many such days of reckoning will consume real estate players in 2010 as they realize time and the economy won´t bail them out.
Some observers have been pointing to the stock market for rays of better times ahead-recent gains hopefully presage restored economic growth. But stock investors seem more buoyed and energized by the Fed keeping interest rates at near zero levels than any solid signs of business recoveries. Cheap money continues to be everyone´s elixir of choice, feeding hard to shake trading behaviors and short-circuiting more long-term investment thinking. But the continued low Feds Fund rate really should be everyone´s concern. Bernanke and company´s actions only signal their apprehensions over economic fragility and the long road back to spurring significant U.S. jobs growth. It actually would be good news, if the Fed finally started lifting rates-that would highlight renewed confidence by senior government policy makers that we are on the mend. Unfortunately, that confidence appears nowhere in sight as unemployment numbers rise-albeit at a slowing pace-and companies improve earnings mostly off of productivity gains (cutting costs) not meaningfully ramped up sales.
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
