Here are some thoughts from the road after three weeks of Emerging Trends speeches:
San Francisco: Relatively upbeat after a thorough pummeling, the market sees cash rich vultures start to circle in a flight to quality. Well-leased downtown properties find a floor and the apartment market could come back more quickly than other sectors. The worst is over.
Toronto: Locals sleep easy despite downtown office overbuilding and weak industrial markets brought on by carmaker woes just south of the border. Well-heeled institutions own most of the downtown properties and offer stability while developers back off ample condo construction-units get bought up in move-back in trends. A lackluster economy looks comparatively good next to U.S. woes. Everyone is relieved they didn´t overleverage and stuck to conservative practices with a heavy dollop of government regulation in the banking sector. The big worry is contagion from the U.S., including the weak greenback, which cuts into exports.
Boston: Happy to rank higher in Emerging Trends than anywhere else but Washington D.C. and San Fran, Hub players know they still have to take their medicine and work their way out of a giant hole. A barrier constrained market and brainpower center offers better prospects for quicker recovery than most other places.
Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.
Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:
- Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
*May exclude premium content© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.
Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
