Did you go shopping on Black Friday and line up at 3 a.m. at your local Wal-Mart or Penney´s? Did you get that great deal on something you or your family probably doesn´t need like the high definition TV which uses five times as much electricity as your old color set? Did you do your national duty and buy, buy, buy?

I can´t think of anything I´d rather not do over the Thanksgiving holiday than go shopping. But all the TV commercials and newspaper ads try to rev up business and the news shows tell us that´s where everybody goes. Tiger Woods was probably rushing to get in on the action when he drove into the fire hydrant-he was looking for just that special something for his model wife, I´m sure, and couldn´t race to Target fast enough to get on line in the wee hours.

Pay little attention to the Black Friday weekend sales volumes. They usually offer little guidance on overall Christmas sales figures. The early numbers were half a percent over last year´s or basically flat, and last year was an ugly holiday shopping season.

Clearly rising unemployment, tightened credit, and mountains of existing consumer debt add up to another dismal year for retailers. Industry spokespeople sound cautiously optimistic, but they don´t want to talk people away from the stores and be accused of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. That´s just not good for their own job security.

Their hopeful talk aside, we´re told retailers have hedged their bets by not over-ordering and keeping product lines lean-they don´t want to be forced into marking down a bunch of Boxing Day inventory like last year.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.