Manufacturing Group Forecasts Growth in 2010

ARLINGTON, VA-Growth is finally poised to return to the US economy, though at a far more modest rate than during recovery from most previous recessions. According to the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Quarterly Economic Forecast, the inflation-adjusted GDP is expected to decline 2.5% this year, before rebounding to 2.4% growth in 2010 and 3.5% growth in ’11. Looking further out, the organization projects average annual GDP growth from 2010-14 at 3.1%, including a peak growth annual high of 4% in ’12.

“We are pleased there is growth in the overall economy and surprisingly strong growth in manufacturing,” says Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI chief economist Daniel J. Meckstroth. “Yet by historical standards it is still modest compared to recoveries from past recessions.”

According to Meckstroth, manufacturing production growth will grow faster than the general economy next year. While the former is expected to decline 11.3% this year, it is projected to rise 4.6% next year and 6% the year after. “An inventory swing in the goods producing sector is a major reason for the acceleration in manufacturing production,” he explains. “We expect manufacturing growth to be led by high technology products, semiconductors and computers.”