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Recovery a Soft Crescendo

NEW YORK CITY-ING researchers said improvements in fundamentals and property values are still a few years away, but in the meantime opportunities abound.

By Paul Bubny | Updated on December 03, 2009

NEW YORK CITY-Domestically and globally, 2010 will be a transitional year rather than a turning point for commercial real estate recovery, which will unfold over a much longer time period, researchers at ING said Thursday. In a media event at ING Clarion’s offices at 230 Park Ave. here, David Lynn, head of US research and investment strategy, said recovery will be “a gradual process, not a crescendo like the early 1990s.”

In fact, by late next year, the recovery will enter into the third phase of what Lynn described as a four-phase process, as lenders begin selling in earnest. Phase four, in which an improving domestic economy and stronger fundamentals lead to rising income and property values, isn’t likely to occur until 2012 or 2013 at the earliest.

Until then, Lynn said, with capital still on the sidelines and supply well below historic averages, it’s a good time for investors to edge back into the game. “When the whole world recognizes a bottom, it’s no longer a bottom,” he said.

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