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Shipping Totals Point to Beginning of Recovery

Though year-over-year numbers continue to show declines, analysts say the overall trend appears positive. National Retail Federation predicts growth will return in February.

By John McCloud | Updated on December 16, 2009

BRIDGETON, MO & WASHINGTON, DC-Though a widely followed index of US shipping activity declined in October after rising in September, a major research source projects import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports could soon see the first year-over-year increases in more than two years. The Cass Freight Index from Bridgeton-based Cass Information Systems Inc. dropped to 1.52 in October from 1.55 a month earlier, but the most recent Port Tracker report from the Washington-based National Retail Federation (NRF) and IHS Global Insight says year-over-year declines in monthly shipping volumes should begin to reverse in February.

Both sources agree the remainder of 2009 is likely to see a continuation of year-over-year declines. Thomas M. Zygmunt, who manages the Cass index, notes the index has dropped in November and December for the last three years and says there is little reason to expect the pattern to change now. Port Tracker, released Nov. 23, forecasts that volume for October, traditionally the peak month of the year, will come in 15% percent below last year’s level, while November’s will be 11% down. However, it predicts December’s level will be even with last year’s level and January’s will fall only 3%. The organization reports that September, the most recent month for which actual numbers were available, saw a 3% drop from August and 16% drop from September ’08.

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