The end of the decade approaches and the next couple of weeks will be filled with stories about what a lost ten years it´s been-from Enron and 9/11 to Iraq and the credit meltdown. In real estate, we didn´t create much-except for a lot of overpriced condos and half baked Las Vegas hotels, but we sure bought, financed, and sold a ton of properties, which generated a bank vault of fees off values that weren´t really there. In the end property prices head back down to about where they started the decade, well maybe they´ll be a bit higher for premium properties. And the bloat of middlemen brokers and dealmakers has been deflated.
So what´s the future? Do we really want to resuscitate the mirage machine? Anyone left standing with some cash in hand gets ready to buy at approaching market lows. But then what? Is the idea to sell asap, book big gains? Instead of holding and managing for steady cash flows will we go back into high octane, opportunistic trading mode?
People say the game has changed since debt is hard to obtain. They say they recognize the economy isn´t positioned for fast track growth, that the consumer may be down for the count, that interest rates will increase, and that government deficits will be a long-term drag.
But somehow most of us figure, the market always comes back, we trust it will be the same this time, and then we´ll push the envelope again until the next correction, making as much as we can in the meantime... hopefully.
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
