GlobeSt.com: Given current market conditions, where will your focus lie in 2010?Abdo: In this market we are working with tenants to help them protect their cash position. There have been a lot of lease extensions and renewals. Tenants are reluctant to make a commitment until they can see their 2011 book of business. And, even more important, until they get a feel for what their head count is going to be going forward because jobs are really the driving link in the commercial real estate market. What we have is a stock market that is showing positive signs every day. But traditionally the real estate market in New York City is around one year to 18 months behind the stock market. So when the big crash happened last year it took a while for it to trick down to real estate. Now, the effects of that are being felt and even though stocks are starting to climb again, a lot of that profitability is due to downsizing rather than increased sales. This effects the way both tenants and landlords are evaluating transactions going forward. So from the tenants' side it is a great time to lock in on 25% to 40% below rental rates at the height of the market. If you have a lease expiring in 2010, you are going to be in a good position to make a sharp deal. Landlords, on the other hand, are reaching a bit more. You primarily see it in the concessions--in terms of free rent and work contributions. Landlords are naturally going to resist the lowering of the base rent and in many cases if a landlord is highly leveraged or has an onerous mortgage they can't go below a certain base rent so that precludes them from certain segments of the market.

GlobeSt.com: What does this year hold in store for landlords?

Abdo: It's going to depend on the landlord, as trite as that sounds. Traditional, long-time landlords with low mortgages can basically do anything they want and what they're going to do is keep their good tenants. They aren't going to let them go. If a highly qualified tenant walks in the door they're going to do whatever it takes to get them in the building. Landlords that bought properties in the last five to seven years might be in a different position where they have to achieve a certain rent. So the opportunities are going to vary from building to building, market to market and landlord to landlord. Another factor is the massive amount of sublets we're seeing. So that is adding a lot of product to the market. And even from the landlords' side of the ledger that is rented space, which, for the most part, they are still receiving income on. So it's not reported as direct space net absorption. When those subleases start maturing, some of them are going to get leased and some are not. And certain companies are probably going to be forced under because they can't rent their space. Others will wind up living out the term. And in the case of the ones that don't live out their term the space is eventually going to come back to the landlords because I don't see all of that sublet space being absorbed in the amount of time that's left on those leases. That's going to cause further downward pressure on the landlords to reach more for tenants. For example, some of the class A buildings in Midtown that came online in the last two years and were asking $150 to $160 a square foot are now look at leases in the low $60s. I've seen the trophy properties drop as much as 50%, while the B and C buildings are relatively shorter drops, but only because they don't have as far to travel. The overall average, though, is somewhere in the 25% to 30% range.

GlobeSt.com: The past year or so has clearly been a tenants market, but a large number of the transactions in 2009 were renewals. Do you think we will see more tenants take new space this year?

Abdo: Right now, I'm still seeing more tenant renewals because of a reticence to make a long term commitment when they're not sure how much space they are really going to need. There's been a lot of good press regarding some large deals that occurred this year, but I'd say that 80% of that business was renewals. There is a portion of the market where tenants will always relocate for obviously compelling reasons—the space is either too big or too small. And buying value—any tenant that has a stable employee structure and has a lease coming up can definitely trade up in value. A tenant in a B building paying $35 a square foot can probably, at $35 or maybe $40, go to an A building, whereas that would have been impossible before. You can only do that in a down market. You trade up in value by taking advantage of a stable landlord or a real distressed sublet that in many cases is going to be fully furnished. So that becomes a real asset if you're in a position to take advantage of it.

GlobeSt.com: Do you think this year will offer more opportunities for commercial real estate or will certain challenges become even more glaring?

Abdo: We are going to muddle along in 2010, but maybe by the end of the year we'll start to see a resurgence of direct deals and net absorption of space. But right now, we're probably at an all-time high on direct space vacancy. When you factor in the sublets, it's an even higher number. Nobody has a crystal ball, but it's going to take a bit of time for the real estate market to catch up to where the stock market is giving a strong indication of going. Hopefully, we will continue to follow that trend. But once again, when it comes to commercial office leasing in Manhattan it's all about jobs.

GlobeSt.com: In 2009, there was a lot of talk about distress but few transactions. Do you expect to see more distress deals this year?

Abdo: Yes, there will be more distress transactions in 2010. There is still a real estate time bomb out there, it's no secret. There will be a lot of mortgages coming due in this year where the mortgage will actually have more value than the property. So you will see some properties change hands under distress, but it hasn't happened yet and fortunately landlords are finding a way to hang on. By and large, lenders are not equipped to repossess distressed properties because they don't have leasing departments. And they really don't want to foreclose on a property if there's any way to avoid it. So you'll see a lot of restructuring of loans and terms extended. As long as the economy keeps showing signs of recovery and the landlord can make a realistic case the bloodbath will not be as severe as people predicted. But we will see more transactions this year than we did in 2009.

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