"This quarter, there is reason to be hopeful that the significant devaluation we have tracked since the demise of Lehman Brothers is coming to an end," writes Corcoran CEO Pamela Liebman in her firm's report, prepared in partnership with PropertyShark.com. Although Q4 prices ebbed on both a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis, "the rate of decline has slowed," says Hall F. Willkie, president of Brown Harris Stevens, in a release.
The Douglas Elliman report says the average sales price for Manhattan apartments was $1,296,156, down 12.7% from $1,485,102 year over year and down 2.1% from $1,323,462 in Q3. The median sales price of $810,000 reflects a 10% year-over-year decline and a 4.7% quarterly drop from $850,000 in Q3; the declines were more pronounced for condominiums than for cooperatives.
Brown Harris Stevens puts the borough-wide average at $1,324,504, off 4% from Q3 and down 9% from the same period in 2008, although its report says that condo prices showed a slight increase year over year. Corcoran reports a 13% drop in median co-op prices from the market peak in Q3 '08, and a 22% decline in median condo prices from that sector's peak a year ago. On the other hand, the firm motes a 48% year-over-year increase in closings.
"Improvement in the national economy, rising stock market and mortgage rates at historic lows have all played a role in the improvement of the Manhattan housing market second half of 2009," says Jonathan Miller, president/CEO of Miller Samuel, in a release. Dottie Herman, president/CEO of Douglas Elliman, notes in a release that "unlike the rest of the country where there is an abundance of inventory, New York City's listing inventory fell 25% from the same time last year. We believe that improved economic conditions and a strong belief in New York City all played a role in improving our housing market."
Adds Willkie, "It's important to remember the lag time between when contracts are signed and when they close, and that this report doesn't fully reflect the current state of the market. As we continue to see an increase in new deals, we have even more reason to be optimistic about the strength of the New York residential real estate market."
In late December 2009, the Real Estate Group of New York, which tracks the rental market, noted that asking rents in Manhattan continued to buck the seasonal trend by remaining flat compared to the prior month. Doorman apartment units declined 5.79% compared to December '08 and 1.19% from November of last year, while non-doorman units saw a year-over-year decline of 1.74% and actually rose 0.87% from November '09.
"Manhattan's rental market appears to be stabilizing to some extent," according to the TREGNY report. "Many of the aggressive incentives that were previously being offered this year have been scaled back and landlords seem to be increasingly comfortable with their situations. Though the outlook for 2010 is still uncertain, the data does offer some hope for improvement."
Looking at sales of multifamily buildings rather than individual units, RCA's most recent monthly report, reflecting year-to-date data through November '09, showed Manhattan lagging behind Los Angeles, Dallas, Atlanta, Phoenix and tertiary Southeast markets with volume of $530 million. Nationally, sales of significant apartment properties totaled $1.3 billion in November, down slightly from October but up notably from monthly figures recorded earlier in '09, according to RCA. "Preliminary data indicates that December could wind up being the most active month of 2009," the firm says.
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