The Baird Freight Index registered -4.6% in November, a three-point improvement over the -7.7% recorded in October. Much of the improvement, say analysts at the Milwaukee-based company is due to intermodal growth. Year-over-year intermodal volume declined 7% compared to 11% in October. According to Baird, both rail and truckload spot market demand indicators were slightly above normal seasonal trend lines.
Langenfeld and Hartford see the difference in sector performance as a sign that freight share is shifting away from trucks to rail. While they acknowledge that "competitive truck pricing continues to weigh down intermodal pricing," they maintain that intermodal carriers and railroads will benefit as truckload pricing power returns.
According to the Arlington, VA-based ATA, its truck freight index fell 3.5% in November compared with November '08. In October, the index was down 5.2% from a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted index reached 106.4, its highest level in a year. The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by member companies, reached 100.8, down 8% from October.
"Slowly, but surely, truck freight has started the recovery process, and November's solid increase is a very positive sign," says ATA chief economist Bob Costello. "Truck freight had been hurt by both slow economic output and bloated inventories. However, we now have evidence that the inventories are in much better shape, which will not be such a drag on truck freight volumes."
But Costello cautions that the path to recovery is not likely to be steady. "While the economy and trucking is improving, the industry should not get overly excited about the sizable increase in November. I continue to believe that both the economy and truck tonnage will exhibit starts and stops in the months ahead, but the general trend should be for moderate growth."
Langenfeld and Hartford, on the other hand, are slightly more optimistic that the upward trend will continue unbroken. They say rail volumes' year-over-year comparisons will ease significantly and carloads will remain stable heading into the new year.
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