"Though delinquencies have increased approximately five times from a year ago, they may not peak until '12," Fitch managing director Mary MacNeill says in the report. "An increased number of loans are coming due over the next two years that will result in delinquencies possibly peaking at 12%."
All five property types have seen a year-over-year increase in delinquencies of over 195%, Fitch says. They range from multifamily, with a 196% increase, to hotel, which soared 1,175% over the past 12 months.
Not surprisingly, hospitality has the highest delinquency rate at 9.13%, representing $4.6 billion of CMBS loans compared to $363.7 million 12 months earlier. It's followed by multifamily at 7.54%, or $5 billion versus $1.6 billion in December 2008; retail at 4.25%, up from $1.2 billion in December '08 to $5.7 billion; industrial at 3.57%, up to $851.3 million from $186.2 million; and office at 2.66%, up from $603.5 million to $3.9 billion.
Fitch says there are now 25 delinquent CMBS loans greater than $100 million, compared to four a year ago. Given that an increased number of loans with larger balances were securitized in 2006 and 2007, "when underwriting was most aggressive," the agency says it expects delinquencies and maturity defaults of these loans to weigh heavily on future tallies.
The four most-recent vintages of CMBS have gone from representing just over half of delinquencies by balance to more than 75% of the total at December's end, says Fitch. In terms of percentages and dollars, that means 2005-vintage CMBS have a delinquency rate of 3.16% or $2.4 billion; 2006, 5.11% and $5.6 billion, 2007, 5.22% and $8.1 billion; and '08, 7.33% and $312.8 million.
Fitch's delinquency index for loans that are at least 60 days late includes 2,143 loans totaling $21.6 billion, out of the Fitch-rated universe of approximately 42,000 loans comprising $457.5 billion. The index does not include Fitch-rated loans that are 30 to 59 days delinquent, which currently total $7.2 billion.
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Paul Bubny
Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.
