Certain submarkets continued to record up-ticks in vacancy, but there were a handful that experienced declines in the last three months as leasing activity picked up and less space was placed onto the market. During the fourth quarter, there were just nine blocks of space in excess of 40,000 square feet added to the market. The previous three quarters of 2009 averaged 15 such blocks of space made available for lease. Much of the diminishing space during the fourth quarter occurred in Bergen County, the Waterfront and Parsippany; all of these markets recorded more than a one-percentage point decrease in their vacancy rates, which now stand at 23.7%, 25% and 12.2%, respectively.
Although there was an increase in leasing activity during the fourth quarter, the year-to-date total was the lowest in recent history for New Jersey, with 8.2 million square feet leased. Renewals accounted for almost 40% of all fourth quarter leasing, including five of the top 10 transactions. This comes as little surprise, as there are still many tenants who are undecided or putting a hold on real estate decisions until the economy shows signs of improvement. Since a year ago, the overall average asking rental rate has fallen almost 5%, to $25.01 in Northern New Jersey and $22.54 in the southern part of the state, as space options continued to grow for tenants.
Clearly, the uncertain economic future has made cost containment a top priority for tenants. As a result, those deals that are getting done are mainly short-term renewals, says Jospeh Sarno, executive director of Cushman & Wakefield, based in Edison. "We're seeing fewer capital dollars available for companies to relocate into new spaces and fit out those spaces. So new leasing activity has been lower than in previous years."
Given the sluggish leasing landscape, it's no surprise concessions are up in the Garden State. "There have been a tremendous number of tenants looking for some rent relief or upfront concessions in exchange for additional terms," Sarno says, "and in many instances we're seeing landlords accommodate these requests."
Concessions aside, there isn't much more that can be done to incite transactions, says Mike Fasano, vice president and regional manager of Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services' Elmwood Park office. "If breaking even is $20 or $22, you really can't go much below that."
Although the market is quite weak, unique product that's well priced and located will continue to see demand, Sarno says, "especially in light of the fact that the pricing is much more aggressive than it was in the past several years."
According to JLL's Daniel J. Loughlin, "We are seeing more activity. It feels like companies in 2009 were petrified to make a decision, but their budgets are now allowing them to expand, even if just slightly." He adds that we will continue to see companies consolidate and find space that is more efficient.
A potential bright spot for landlords: there were five deals in excess of 100,000 square feet that closed in the last three months. In comparison, there were five throughout the first three quarters of the year. JLL expects vacancy to level sometime in 2010, while asking rents should continue to slip, albeit at a slower pace. According to Loughlin, we should start show some signs of improvement in early 2011.
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