"We expect commercial real estate prices to decline further in the months ahead," the report says. "Prices for properties with short-term lease structures, such as multifamily, could show signs of a sustainable recovery later this year, while other property types will likely need longer to turn the corner."
Further, the report prepared by Moody's and Real Estate Analytics forecasts that commercial prices will remain "well below peak values" with no sustained upturn for several quarters. "The CPPI may exhibit some choppiness as transaction volume picks up and a bottom begins to form, but the overall price trend will continue downward over the near term," according to the report.
Looking on the brighter side, the report notes that monthly declines tapered off as 2009 went on, and further erosion from now on "will almost certainly be milder" than the steep monthly price drops that were seen last spring, including a record 8.6% slide in April. "Further deterioration in property fundamentals and increases in cap rates are anticipated, although the worst of the value declines is likely over."
Strongest of the quarterly regional indexes currently are Southern California apartments, Eastern apartments and retail in the Southern states, which stand at 175.13, 170.84 and 157.82, respectively. Among the regional indexes, Southern retail showed the smallest year-over-year decline with a dip of 8%. Conversely, however, the South is also home to the weakest sector; the multifamily index there is 77.38, with values declining 51.8% year-over-year.
The report notes that although value declines began first in the residential sector, the overall declines have been larger for commercial properties. Citing the Case Shiller Index, the report observes that home prices peaked in August 2006, more than a year before the October 2007 peak in the commercial sector. Home prices then fell for more than two-and-a-half years, bottoming out this past April, with nearly a one-third value loss. "Since April, prices have rebounded slightly, but have seen no significant growth in the last two months' returns," the report says.
In contrast, commercial property prices fell further over a shorter period of time. "After two years of value declines, commercial real estate reached its lowest value yet in October '09, nearly 44% below the peak level," the Moody's/REAL report says. "Prices in the commercial sector will rebound off the bottom as markets recover, but we expect that commercial property prices will ultimately flatten out for the longer term at levels 30% to 40% below the peak."
In October, a few weeks before the index reached its lowest point to date, REAL president Neal Elkin told GlobeSt.com that price declines were tapering off. "It looks as though we're finally reaching levels that some people believe represent fair value," Neal Elkin, president of REAL, tells GlobeSt.com. "You've got this combination of moving enough so that there's an opportunity at these levels, and growing pressure on the distressed sellers to cross the bid-offer spread and move the assets. Both of these things are contributing to stabilization of prices and a slight uptick in volume, although nothing I can get really excited about."
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