My recent "Government Retrenchment" post produced record feedback on and off line, both positive and negative and very representative of the highly partisan and charged political environment. Folks against government stimulus say enable the private sector to create jobs by cutting taxes and spending. They reject that stimulus has stanched even greater unemployment and financial market crisis and they would like to see reduced government programs leading to lower taxes and smaller deficits.

This supply-side Kool Aid still sounds awfully good-who doesn´t want to pay less taxes? But this elixir has failed miserably-the private sector hasn´t created enough new jobs despite the last decade of federal tax cuts, low interest rates, and increased spending. In fact, we´ve suffered a jobs creation deficit over the past decade. And wages and benefits have stagnated for most Americans who still have jobs.

The problem facing America and ultimately the health of real estate markets doesn´t have to do with the convenient red herrings of high taxes and government spending-albeit government deficits loom as an increasing threat. The intractable problem that no politician wants to talk about or face up to is America is the world´s highest cost labor market in an increasingly competitive global marketplace-people in other parts of the world produce what we do for less because they get paid a lot less than American workers. Bleeding of jobs overseas started decades ago in manufacturing, but now extends to various white collar service and technical jobs across virtually all industries. And the firms moving these jobs overseas are our largest employers-big multinational U.S. companies who can increase profits and raise their stock prices as a result of worker shifts to lower cost overseas labor markets. These employers include not only manufacturers, but also major financial institutions, accounting firms, and technology companies.

As just one example, a colleague at a major worldwide consulting firm mentioned to me last week that his company is shifting $2 billion in billable hours to new offices in South America, staffed by locals who get paid a lot less than comparable U.S. staff. "That´s a lot of hours," he said. And you wonder why your son or daughter just out of college can´t find work today.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.