Although average occupancy in the Orlando metropolitan area remains just above 90%, average rents are forecast to fall to as low as $800 per month after sliding at least 3% over the past year, according to various brokerage research reports. Offers on new leases, such as one to two months free rent, are commonplace among the 185,000 apartments in local inventory.
"It's still a very competitive leasing environment," Shelton Granade, senior vice president with CB Richard Ellis in Orlando, tells GlobeSt.com. Concessions remain prevalent in most submarkets, though they declined through the latter half of 2009, he says.
Orlando is forecast to gain 8,000 new jobs through this year--and more than 161,000 over the next five years--after losing 48,000 positions last year, according to CBRE and MPF Research. Rents are forecast to hold steady through the balance of 2010, followed by a 13% increase to $923 by 2014.
Apartment construction in the Orlando market has slowed to only 600 projected units this year, less than half of what was delivered in 2009, according to Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services. That may help absorb vacant inventory, including condominiums that have reverted to rental status, but the tradeoff is that builders are among those workers who rent units while local projects are under way.
Yet there is little else in the Orlando apartment market to discourage investors who are seeking properties, in particular those that are in distress or under bank ownership. Diminished cash flows are forcing some owners to surrender assets, says Richard Matricaria, Orlando regional manager with Marcus & Millichap.
"The appearance of these properties on the market will provide an opportunity for investors with equity in stabilized assets to redeploy capital into deeply discounted properties, some of which have never been marketed," Matricaria says. "Owners who need to sell, meanwhile, will weigh the risk of chasing down the market further if a sell decision is made."
Granade, whose CBRE Central Florida Multi-Housing Group claims at least half of the $219 million in local apartment sales last year, says the Orlando market is well on its way to topping that figure this year with $60 million in January. However, it will take a while longer to reach past sales marks of $647 million in 2008 or just over $1 billion in 2007, he says. The market peaked at $3.5 billion in 2005.
"There is a lot of capital waiting to get back in," Granade says, noting that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae financing is available for potential deals. Current properties going up for sale are attracting between 25 and 30 offers each, twice as many as in recent years, he says.
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