The Sovereign Debt Issue Is Being Way Over PlayedI am not suggesting at all that the PIGS problems are not serious, they are. However, the thing everyone is missing is that the EU cannot allow these minor countries to drag down the budding economic recovery, nor can the US Fed. The European bank and the IMF, with the help of Bernanke, will find ways to shore up these economies and nobody will go into insolvency. The huge jumps in CDS rates on the PIGs is way overblown, and just a bunch of traders who do not see the big picture once again. Europe and the US cannot let these countries collapse, or we risk radical left and right wing regimes taking them over, and that would then be real problems. That was how Fascism got started. That is the real issue, and not bond ratings. You need to look at the real geopolitical and related issues when assessing how these events will play out, and why they will not be allowed to blow up. The real risk in the whole financial crisis is the future of capitalism, and preventing the radical left or radical right from using it to gain major political advantage and a replay of Hitler. The other issue many are not realizing is that the GDP of these countries really is not all that relevant. Portugal and Ireland could fall into the ocean and nobody would even notice. Greece the same, other than some great vacation spots would be gone. The GDP of Greece and Portugal is less than New Jersey. Spain is just $1.4 trillion, or there about. Italy has not had a real functioning government since WWII, so why is anyone upset by what they do. There is nothing new there. They run their country in their own screwed up way, and that will probably never change. Somehow they manage to keep going.The European banks exposure to securitized debt, bad real estate loans and derivatives was vastly greater than to these meaningless countries. So let's not worry that the European economy is crashing-it is not. If France, Germany and the UK start to crash, then you can get worried, but the PIGS are not taking down the major banks nor the EU.If you want to be concerned, worry about California, New York, New Jersey and many large municipalities. They are much larger than the PIGs as to economic impact, and their irresponsible spending of the past years and their labor contracts and pension liabilities are really something to be worried about. To fix their problems they will have to raise taxes, fees and other cash generators. That impacts you. Property taxes have to go up. Sales taxes have to go up. Income taxes at all levels of government will go up. Lending for new development will remain almost non-existent for a couple of more years.Focus on what really matters and ignore all of the silly emotional rhetoric around Greece and the other noise.

Continue Reading for Free

Register and gain access to:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Joel Ross

Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.