The culprit appears to be unemployment, which reached nearly 12% statewide in January even as the rest of the US fell slightly below 10%. Now Florida, which has always been to outshining the rest of the nation, is starting to feel like it's on the down side.
"This month, Floridians may be coming to terms with the possibility that Florida's economy will not recover at the same pace as other states," says Chris McCarty, who directs the survey for the University of Florida's Bureau of Business and Economic Research in Gainesville. He points out that expectations of US economic conditions and personal finances declined for February, while perceptions about buying big-ticket consumer items rose slightly.
Although McCarty believes the January index of 74 (benchmarked to 1966) seemed more optimistic than it should have been given Florida's economic climate, he points out that conditions are better now than they were a year ago. Layoffs have largely abated, and increased saving and improvement in home prices have contributed to individual optimism, he says.
"The problem comes down to employment and the potential effects of extended high unemployment on other areas of the economy, such as retail sales and housing," McCarty says. As the state's jobless rate remains in double-digit territory, and more long-term unemployed residents run out of benefits, consumer confidence and spending will likely weaken, he says.
The Florida Consumer Attitude Survey is conducted each month among statewide households telephoned randomly. The February index included 457 responses.
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