"There is no doubt that capital markets are rebounding, as witnessed by the nearly 60% bounce in the stock market since the low in March 2009, and the greatly narrowed spreads on LIBOR, high-grade corporate debt and, more recently, junk bonds," Linneman writes in "Capital Markets Show First Signs of Recovery," the newest in a series of white papers. "Bank excess reserves at the Fed remain slightly over $1 trillion, suggesting that these banks could create $7 trillion-$8 trillion in new loans."
Financial institutions are still reluctant to lend, a fact that Linneman ascribes primarily to their increased focus on "dealing with Washington and problem loans, as well as the difficulty of making good loans in a world of falling asset prices. But as asset prices have hit bottom, we expect a return to selective lending by banks."
Addressing a question on the minds of many, Linneman sees rising asset prices and falling cap rates eventually coming to pass. Over the next three years, he writes, "we anticipate that, absent an unusual inflationary surge, the 10-year Treasury rate will rise approximately 150 basis points, while the risk premium associated with property will fall by as much as 250 basis points." Additionally, as job growth begins to absorb "the vast amounts of space emptied during the great panic," the expected long-term growth rate will rise by approximately 100 basis points.
"Taken together, this leads us to anticipate that cap rates will be approximately 200 basis points lower in two to three years," Linneman writes. Specifically, he adds, "implied cap rates of 7% to 8.5% today will give way to 5% to 6.5% cap rates in the coming years."
Nonetheless, Linneman's view of the horizon is not unbroken by clouds. At last week's RealShare Philadelphia conference, he blamed panic and government intervention as the root causes of the recession—and implied that continued federal activism will only exacerbate the sluggishness of the recovery. "The notion that the government is there to play will destroy economic growth," he continued.
Accordingly, Linneman in his white paper sees government action as a potential drag on the equitization process he sees coming, as the industry experiences "a massive debt-for-equity swap." The process, he writes, "will be a lot slower than most people think, as the US government is acting like Japan in the early 1990s. That is, the US government is giving blood to the dead rather than to the living. If this continues, insolvent banks will have less incentive to sell assets and create a market." He adds, "Debt workouts are great for lawyers, but bad for everybody else."
The first source of capital for commercial properties, Linneman predicts, will be the public markets. "REITS are in the best position because they already exist, have track records, have the capacity to issue stock in exchange for properties, have low leverage, are transparent and are name brands."
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