That's really not that big of a secret since it is not difficult to change from where we were this time last year. However, Chinese philosophers predict that Tigers who thrive on chance and unpredictability are best suited to navigating the many upheavals predicted in the year ahead.
A few prolific examples of the type of person born in a Year of the Tiger are Marco Polo (1254), Karl Marx (1855) and Dwight Eisenhower (1890). While these three rose to great heights through some of the most tumultuous times in world history, whether the outcome was positive or negative, they are all under the category of those who can keep a steady hand on the helm—shaky at times, yet undeterred by the typically thunderous events foreseen in any Tiger year.
Even Lionel Richie (1949) might be "Dancing on the Ceiling" when things get rough, but that may definitely change the way we look at things going forward into 2010.
Net lease investments seem to be the one bright spot on the commercial real estate investment horizon. The sector is attracting many new investors to the property type for its low or complete lack of management/maintenance as well as its above-average return compared to other passive investments in today's market.
Recently I've been bombarded with the phrase "all-cash buyer." It seems that many investors are still sitting with ample cash for investments and are tired of receiving .25% interest from their local money market. If an investor sees an opportunity to receive a 6.5% to 8.5% return on that same cash, while at the same time limiting their overall investment risk, they will jump at that chance.
Moreover, I hear the word "exchange" a lot more and this trend will most likely continue throughout the year, with 1031 and 1033 exchanges becoming more prevalent increasing in volume as the year progresses. More transactions are occurring now and that drives the velocity of the exchange market, subsequently increasing the desire for passive net lease investments.
If you remember "2010," the 1984 sequel to "2001: A Space Odyssey," you may recall that the main character Dr. Heywood Floyd (played by Roy Scheider), said toward the end of the movie: "You can tell your children of the day when everyone looked up and realized that they were only tenants of this world. We have been given a new lease and a warning from the landlord." Perhaps he foresaw the real estate market changing so drastically this year that he needed to allude to its transformation over 25 years beforehand?
Whether you compare Marco Polo, Lionel Richie or Dr. Floyd, we will definitely see the change in volume for net lease investments increase over time throughout the Year of the Tiger and most likely into 2011, the Year of the Rabbit.
The views expressed in this column are those of the author and not of ALM's Real Estate Media Group or its publications.
David Sobelman is executive vice president of Calkain Cos. in Tampa. He can be reached at [email protected].
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