Good News?

At a client meeting last week, a top broker asked me when we would see “some good news.” Come to think of it, I´ve been writing this blog since November 2007, and it´s been all downhill since then. I asked him what he thought—he helps oversee a 1500-plus nationwide network trying to source deals. He said he didn´t know, but except for a few isolated markets-like San Francisco and maybe Washington DC, most places are still bottoming. He added until players are comfortable about a turnaround, the transaction markets will remain compromised. Well, that´s certainly the conventional take and makes sense.

So what does that mean for timing a recovery? Well, it´s still a good bet that commercial markets will stop falling during 2010. The big pension fund accounts have taken huge write downs, approaching 40%, on their institutional quality portfolios. They may lose another 5-10% before they´re done, but most of the depreciation is already out of the way.