For one thing, a great many of those opportunities have been coming via off-market transactions, said Jon Bortz, chairman and CEO of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust, adding that he's seen an increase in deal flow since late last year. He predicted that we'll see more opportunities from lenders selling their positions "as they can afford or need to take writedowns." Kennedy Associates EVP Jack Van Hartesvelt concurred that most of the action is off-market, noting that when foreign banks indicate that they want to get out of their US real estate exposure, it's a good time to be in contact with them.
There are other ways in which the hotel landscape has changed since the market peak. Chuck Bedsole, managing partner of Alvarez & Marsal Real Estate Advisory Services, observed that equity is key, although deals that involve seller financing are also a factor. Van Hartesvelt advised that investors need to be prepared to provide some value-add, such as a major remodeling, after acquiring the asset.
And it's the assets themselves, rather than note sales, that are of greatest interest, panelists agreed. However, in the current climate, "It's going to have to be a pretty attractive risk-adjusted return in order to move all the properties that will have to move," Van Hartesvelt cautioned.
That being said, STR president Mark Lommano charted evidence of the sector's improving vital signs. He noted that ADR has improved from the trough, although it's still in negative territory. In a number of metrics, Lommano said, the luxury sector has fared better than mid-scale properties.
Mike Cahill, CEO and founder of HREC, moderated the hour-long discussion. To listen to a replay of the March 30 event, available on demand until June 30, click here.
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