The "mixed message in sales volume," says the firm, "is noteworthy given more consistent improvements in the broader market recently." For all properties, year-over-year sales volume rose 26% to $3.8 billion in February. And already in the first few days of March, $3.4 billion worth of deals closed and more than $11 billion was under contract. Another $10.5 billion of new properties were put on the market for sale in February, marking the highest level since last spring.
But for apartments, says RCA, there is a further positive spin: whereas last year not one multifamily property traded for more than $50 million, February saw 12 assets close in deals worth more than $50 million.
Investors preferred mid- and high-rise properties over garden communities, and the Washington, DC market was a big draw—nearly a third of February's volume was in the district and its surrounding markets, including three suburban DC properties bought by Bernstein Management Corp. for $250, and the rumored sub-5% cap rate trade of the Palentine Apartments in Arlington, VA to Crescent Heights, a condo converter.
Cap rates actually seem to be ticking down across the board, by some 25 basis points. Caps on deals in top-tier markets could see declines of 50 basis points going forward, on average, and secondary markets are likely to see a decline of 25 basis points. Denver, San Diego, Chicago, Atlanta and Phoenix have already seen deals with cap rates of 6.5% or less.
The parties behind the sales offerings could be behind this trend. While REITs and institutions accounted for the majority of sellers last year, they are relatively absent from the field this year, and private players and lenders have stepped up to fill the void. In fact, lenders selling properties out of REO have become a key force in the market, more than doubling their dispositions to 33% this year. Most of the assets are traditional—lenders are still holding onto the big, high-quality properties—but the motivations behind the increased pace are smaller deal sizes and the relative ease of financing.
All of this, however, doesn't mean the sector is out of the woods. The inventory of distressed apartment properties rose by $660 million in February to total almost $32.8 billion. The new additions to that pool—which have actually declined 21% over January—included $1.3 billion in new trouble, $286 million of resolutions and $391 million in restructured property. Among the deals that took during that month was KBS Realty's mezzanine takeover of the unsold condominium units in Manhattan's Tribeca Summit and HSBC's refinancing of its own matured construction that was syndicated to build the Ritz-Carlton Residences in Baltimore.
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