The reason: there wasn't enough distress to go around, writes E&Y's Mark Grinis and Christopher Seyfarth in a report released Monday. "Up until now, most, but not all, banks have not been engaged in selling distressed loans," leaving the FDIC to take the lead, according to the report.

"The question on everyone's mind today is whether the US distressed loan market in 2010 and 2011 will be the same as '09, characterized chiefly by buyers waiting for sellers to turn up and transact," says Grinis, leader of E&Y's real estate distress services group, in a release. Seyfarth, a partner in the E&Y group, tells GlobeSt.com, "It takes two to tango. Investors are all dressed up and they're ready to dance, but the lenders never showed up to the party, and the biggest reason is that the pricing didn't work for them."

Up until now, most lenders have been reluctant to sell distressed commercial real estate loans and other nonperforming debt at below face value, despite this debt weighing on their balance sheets. That will have to change, says Seyfarth.

"There's a large number of studies on the magnitude of the commercial mortgage problem suggesting that fairly large numbers—$1.4 trillion—are going to mature over the next four years," he says. "The Congressional Oversight Panel in February suggested that as much as half of that is underwater. And there's increased regulatory awareness of the commercial real estate issue, whereas a year ago it wasn't viewed as a big problem because it was too far out in the future. So the pressure is mounting for financial institutions to tackle their NPL issues."

As commercial real estate fundamentals begin to stabilize, it's possible that lenders that have resisted tackling those issues up until now will feel as though some of that pressure is off. But Seyfarth doesn't see that happening. "Sitting on a large portfolio of nonperforming loans isn't necessarily the best long-term strategy," he says.

On the contrary, Seyfarth says, the stabilization of fundamentals could lead to more agreement between buyers and sellers. "Investors so far in pricing loans have assumed that things were getting worse," he says. "But if an investor thinks that things have hit bottom, that's going to help on the pricing side."

When that agreement, and increased lender willingness to get into the market, begin to materialize, investors will be ready. More than half the respondents to E&Y's survey believe that conditions in the NPL market will be favorable enough for them to enter this year, and almost 40% expect to enter the market sometime after June 1. Two-thirds of respondents say they'll each have up to $500 million available for purchases, and about 5% will have more than $500 million to bring to the table.

In terms of loan type, nearly 75% of investors surveyed say they prefer distressed whole loans backed by office, industrial and multifamily properties. About a third of investors favor distressed residential loans, including single-family and condo loans as well as acquisition and development and construction loans. Some investors also want hotel, CMBS and land loans, but none are looking for residential MBS loans, according to E&Y. Click here to access the complete survey.

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.