Whether these thousands of new keys will represent an oversupply remains to be seen, Elsner points out. "The last quarter of'09 showed an uptick in occupancy, but that was at the expense of revenue," he says. "There will be continued pressure in the short term. Manhattan is always the envy of the lodging world—in this cycle, occupancy bottomed out at around 80%, and many markets would kill for 80% in a good period."

LDG's 2010 Manhattan Development Report cites a number of projects currently in some stage of the doldrums. Three projects, representing a total of 320 rooms, have completed foundation work but are now halted due to zoning or financing issues. And there are 29 properties, for a total of 5,002 keys, that have building permits or approved building plans but have yet to begin construction.

An additional 53 properties, representing 10,316 guest rooms, are in various stages of permitting for new hotel construction, expansion or conversion. Of these, 36 properties had permit activity last year and are thus considered active. The remaining 17 properties had no permit activity in the last calendar year and are considered to be temporarily on hold, according to LDG.

In other urban markets beyond Manhattan, Elsner says, the story is much the same. "There are still a few things going on, but it's primarily in secondary and tertiary markets, infill, parts of other-mixed use projects," he says.

The drought will eventually come to an end, but it's not likely to happen anytime soon. "Given a two-year construction period for most projects, in the best case scenario, you would start to see it at the end of '12, but more realistically 2013," Elsner says. "Of course, that all depends on the confidence of developers beginning to return, and more importantly, the confidence of lenders."