"From November to January, commercial real estate prices increased by an aggregate 6.3%," writes Nick Levidy, managing director at Moody's, in the new report. "As noted in our previous reports, however, we did not feel that these increases were sustainable in the short term, particularly given current low transaction volumes. With continued low volume in February and a larger proportion of repeat-sales considered distressed, it is unsurprising that prices have once again headed lower."
The National All Property Type Aggregate Index measured a 2.6% price decline in February. This marks the first time prices have fallen since October of last year, Moody's says.
Commercial property prices are now 41.8% below the peak measured in October 2007, with the November 2009-January 2010 run-up ending 13 consecutive months of declines. The indices are prepared for Moody's by Real Estate Analytics, using transaction data from Real Capital Analytics.
Levidy notes in the April report that one factor in that three-month period of increases may have been "the bifurcation of the market between high and low quality properties." Further clouding the picture is the fact that transaction volume in many markets has declined from the peak even more precipitously than pricing.
Transaction volume declined in February from January by about 10% as measured by dollars and by nearly 30% by count, the report states. Sixty-six repeat-sales totaling roughly $540 million were used in calculating the CPPI.
Interestingly, distressed sales volume dipped in the three months that showed an increase in prices, while February's jump in distressed sales to the highest level in more than three years "no doubt contributed to the current price decline," according to the report. The "high-low split" in the market, coupled with the effects of distressed sales on overall price levels, "will likely cause markets to bounce up and down over the near term," according to Moody's. "We do not expect prices to establish a clear trend until volume picks up and market-clearing prices are established for distressed properties."
The agency says the proportion of all repeat-sales classified as distressed has increased over the past year. In '07, nearly 7% of all repeat-sales transactions used to calculate the index were distressed, and in 2008, that proportion dropped to just 4%. Yet in '09, the distressed sales' share of repeat-sales jumped to nearly 20% of all repeat-sales transactions, and the first two months of this year have seen that proportion continue to increase.
In January, just under 25% of all repeat-sales were distressed, according to Moody's. InFebruary, the number reached nearly 32%.
The Moody's/REAL reports chart several indices on a quarterly or annual basis along with the monthly National All Property Type Aggregate Index. Among the quarterly indices, the best performing on a quarter-to-quarter basis was office prices in the top 10 MSAs, up 26.8%, and Western industrial properties, up 14.8%. All of the annual indices showed year-over-year declines, with the smallest drop seen in Southern California multifamily at negative 8.8% and the steepest in Southern multifamily, where prices have dropped 48.8% in a year.
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