"New York and Boston were among the best performing cities during the recession," according to the report. "Clearly, the federal efforts to support the financial system had the desired impact: the economy did not collapse and the banking system survived." As a result, the report says, the 7.2% decline in financial services employment was less than the drops in professional business services, retail and information: 8.2%, 7.5% and 9.8%, respectively.
The top three cities in terms of financial services employment are New York City at 11.8% of total employment, Boston at 11.2% and Dallas at 8.8%. All three were among the top seven lowest job-loss cities, says C&W.
Boston and New York also rank high in education and health services employment, coming in second and third, respectively, behind Philadelphia. Again, cities with large numbers of jobs in these areas withstood the recession better than most.
However, it's not always a case of a rising tide lifting all boats. Washington, DC benefited from the 0.4% increase nationwide in government employment since the recession began, and C&W says the nation's capital experienced the smallest job loss of any of the 18 major metropolitan areas the report surveyed. On the other hand, Los Angeles, which also has a high concentration of government jobs, was among the metro areas most affected by the downturn.
That has partly to do with the fact that L.A. is also among the cities with the biggest percentage of manufacturing jobs. The sector was hit hard by the recession, C&W says.
The report notes that "this recession did not hit all real estate markets equally." While some saw very little change in vacancy and rents, those that others experienced large decreases in employment or increases in supply tended to suffer "huge increases" in vacancy. Miami and Phoenix, for example, saw vacancies rise to 19.6% and 23.4%, respectively, in the face of major upticks in unemployment.
C&W predicts a gradual increase in office occupancy once the recovery gets under way. "Those cities that experienced moderate employment declines have the best potential for growth," the report states. "Such markets have weathered the storm remarkably well and are ready to expand as the economy comes back. Cities with large losses that generally have less diverse economies and heavy concentrations in manufacturing and construction are likely to have more difficulty achieving consistent declines in vacancy."
Overall, real estate markets nationwide are faring better than might have been expected, "given the sharpest decline in employment in more than 70 years," C&W says. The national vacancy rate is below the last peak in 2003 and well below the level of the early 1990s.
"This performance suggests that markets will emerge from this recession in better shape than in either '03 or the '90s," the report states. "Conditions in the US are being mirrored elsewhere in the Americas, though the US felt this recession more than in other regions."
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