Anything below 50 can't be considered good news, notes AIA chief economist Kermit Baker, as it indicates that billings revenue is still declining. However, the March rating was the highest score since Aug. 2008, he tells GlobeSt.com, which suggests the decline is beginning to taper off. The ABI reflects the approximate nine- to 12-month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. Any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings..

Also promising is that some of the regions are moving into positive territory, namely the Midwest, Baker says. "The Midwest has been doing very well for the past three to six months, because of the upsurge in basic manufacturing, which means that mainline industrial cities are benefiting. Also, agricultural commodities are doing well." It is unlikely the Midwest will stay in positive territory--but that is how recovery happens, Baker says. "It usually comes in fits and starts with an occasional short-term reversal."

Baker predicts the index will move past 50 and stay there by the middle part of this year, basing his projection on the unemployment rolls, stock market and other macroeconomic indicators.