NEW YORK CITY-Multifamily assets fared better than other sectors in withstanding the worst of the investment sales drought across the five boroughs, says a five-year study from brokerage firm CPEX Real Estate. Although the peak-to-trough drop in the number of sales for the sector was second only to that suffered by development parcels, prices for apartment properties held up relatively well.

With multifamily sales picking up in the fourth quarter of 2009 and 2010 signaling the start of a recovery in property sales generally, “expectations are for activity and dollar volume to continue to grow” in the apartment category, albeit not rising to the highs seen between 2005 and 2007, the report says. “All in all, multifamily assets have been resilient over the past year as compared to office, retail and industrial assets and we expect the category to continue its preferred status.”

Looking at the five-year period between 2004 and last year, the report found that the relatively low overall decline in multifamily prices tended to favor more attractive assets, with lower-tier properties taking the biggest hit in valuations. From peak to trough, dollar volume for apartments declined 72%, compared to 65% for industrial, 75% for development sites, 80% for retail properties, 86% for office and 92% for mixed-use assets. Depending on the sector, those peaks occurred variously in ’05, ’06 and ’07, while ’09 invariably represented the trough.

The report forecasts that well-priced apartment assets will draw “significant interest from the market” and attract multiple offers “from the still significant investment pools on the sideline. Multifamily properties at overly inflated values will languish. Housing consolidation will continue, but will be tempered by a reduction in new units slated to come online, as builders have scaled back or abandoned development plans in the past two years.”

That being said, a commentary earlier this week by Shimon Shkury, partner at Massey Knakal Realty Services, notes “some potentially ominous clouds” on the investment sales horizon. He cites an article in the New York Times that reports a steep decline in single-family house and apartment sales since the expiration of the Homebuyer Tax Credit earlier this spring. “This is backed up by a sharp drop in mortgage applications, which are now at their lowest point since 1997,” Shkury writes. Further, the Commerce Department on Wednesday reported a 10% drop in housing starts nationwide for May, the month after the tax credit expired.

Despite these indicators, and news that May retail sales suffered a drastic falloff across the US, “lack of inventory continues to help pricing in the investment sales market,” writes Shkury. “Bidding activity remains strong for well priced listings but there are very few discretionary sellers out there.”

A new report by Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services founds similar concerns in the retail sector citywide. “Although buyer interest remains elevated for New York City retail properties, many investors continue to exhibit uncertainty over property values,” the report states. “Consequently, activity levels have declined sharply in several areas, further muddling pricing expectations and affecting the bidding climate.”

The Marcus & Millichap report predicts that investor demand will stay strongest for mixed-use properties, “where owners can hedge risk with below-market-rate apartment units.” For retail condominiums, though, deal flow will remain depressed “until the credit markets relax sufficiently to facilitate speculative and owner-user acquisitions.”

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.