NEW YORK CITY-“The unknown speed and strength of the recovery have many in the industry anxious,” comments an investor in the latest PricewaterhouseCoopers Korpacz Real Estate Investor Survey. Combine that with a relative dearth of institutional-grade assets on the market, and the result is what the report calls “calm” deal flow.
However, a majority of commercial real estate investors see light on the horizon in the form of shrinking cap rates. Average cap rates declined in 17 of the survey’s 30 markets over the past quarter, with declines ranging from two basis points for San Diego office to 58 for Pacific Northwest properties in the same sector. Over the next six months, survey respondents expect cap rates to hold steady in 18 markets and foresee further declines in 13 others, by as much as 100 basis points.
In particular, investors surveyed by PwC cited 100-basis point potential declines in near-term overall cap rates for Manhattan office, national warehouse and national apartment. For the 18 individual office markets in the survey, average overall cap rates remain lower for central business district submarkets than in the suburbs. This suggests that investors continue to see less risk and better investment potential in CBD assets.
“Higher barriers to entry and a lack of land for new development tend to keep supply and demand a bit more balanced in a market’s CBD,” according to the report accompanying the PwC survey. “As a result, CBD assets typically achieve higher rental rates. In addition, downtown cores tend to provide better forms of mass transportation and embody a 24-hour, live-work lifestyle that appeals to many individuals and firms.”
Along with slim pickings at the institutional-grade end of the market, properties at the other end of the spectrum—distressed assets—haven’t been set out on the shelves at nearly the rate many in the industry expected. Citing Real Capital Analytics data, PwC notes that sales of troubled properties have accounted for only 25% to 30% of the industry’s total volume.
However, when it comes to distress, the correlation between volume of assets and number of sales is not as strong as you might think, according to PwC. The low percentage of distressed trades is actually “a greater reflection of investor preference than of offerings as most buyers steer clear of ‘junk’ and focus on core assets,” the report says. “In fact, strong competition among well-capitalized buyers has elevated sale prices and lowered overall cap rates for many prime properties.”
The report finds varying conditions for the property sectors. Retail, it says, continues to struggle despite encouraging economic data for retail sales and job growth. One reason is that much of that job growth is in temporary hires. In office, notwithstanding a declining vacancy rate in several major markets, surveyed investors expect a slow rebound for the sector.
The industrial market has begun to stabilize, and therefore quality warehouse assets are seeing multiple bids and strong interest from perspective buyers. Leading the recovery is the apartment sector, as reflected in an uptick of transactions. The report says multifamily sales volume for the first quarter of 2010 nearly doubled to $4.3 billion from the same time period a year ago, based on RCA data.
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