NEW YORK CITY-The latest Moody's/REAL National All Property Type Aggregate Index, reflecting commercial prices for the month of April, shows a 1.7% month-over-month increase. That follows two back-to-back months of price declines, which in turn followed three consecutive monthly price increases.

To Neal Elkin, president of Real Estate Analytics, which compiles the Commercial Property Price Indices for Moody’s using Real Capital Analytics data, the fluctuation is no surprise. “The big picture is still that of an essentially flat market, with perhaps a slight upward trend on average and some bouncing around from month to month,” Elkin says in a release. The report from Moody’s uses the word “choppy” to describe pricing over recent months.

Last month, Elkin told GlobeSt.com, “Given a lot of the conflicting pressures on pricing in the asset classes, our view has been that bouncing along the bottom would be the most likely scenario. These types of gyrations–up a little bit, down a little bit, up a little bit—are consistent with that.” Elkin was unavailable for further comment Wednesday.

The June index for April measures 113.10 for June 2010, down 16.4% year over year. Prices have rebounded 4.7% since the low of 107.98 that was recorded this past October, but are still 41.1% below their October 2007 peak. The index was introduced in early 2001, and uses December 2000 prices as its baseline.

“The proportion of troubled asset sales in the CPPI increased slightly from 25% in March to 29% in April, with the lifetime price-change rate of return performance of the distressed sales increasing only slightly and remaining very low,” Elkin says in the release. Despite this, he adds, “the overall CPPI advanced in April, due to the very strong performance of ‘healthy’ properties.”

Measured on a quarterly basis, the four major property sectors nationally showed mixed results. While multifamily prices across the US rose 3.3% over the prior quarter and industrial prices edged up 0.8%, the index for office was down 3.2%. The retail index fared even worse, dropping 4.7% in three months.

A different story is told by the regional indices, which are measured on an annual basis. In the East, retail was the only sector not to suffer a year-over-year decline, instead rising by 4.6%. Office prices, on the other hand, have dropped 24.7% across the region since April 2009.

For Southern properties, the best year-over-year performance was posted by office, which declined only 7.9% year over year as compared to a 32.6% drop for apartments. Multifamily properties in Florida did a little better, with the index declining 29.9% over the past 12 months.

In the West, the industrial sector fared better across the region than it did in Southern California specifically. The index for Western industrial assets was off 8.2% year-over-year, compared to -27.3% in Southern California. The inverse is true in the apartment sector, with Southern California multifamily prices losing only 2% in the past 12 months versus a 12.7% slide across the West.

All three of the major office markets measured in the Moody’s/REAL indices—New York City, San Francisco and Washington, DC—saw significant value declines over the past 12 months. Yet all three markets outperformed their respective regions.

The Moody’s report accompanying the indices cautions against calling a bottom. “Transaction volume is still very low, and without higher volumes it is difficult to conclude that prices have stabilized,” the report states. In addition, the report notes that even if a bottom forms at the current levels, “the market could bump along for several quarters as weakening fundamentals (for some property types) and the specter of interest rate increases in the future conspire to hold down values."

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.