NEW YORK CITY-It’s a mark of the continued vigor of Manhattan’s office leasing market that as a single brand-new property was responsible earlier this year for a slight uptick in the vacancy rate, so that same property—11 Times Square, where law firm Proskauer Rose in May committed to more than 400,000 square feet of headquarters space—is largely responsible for a month-to-month improvement. However, that same statistic can also be cited to show that the recovery is still fragile.
The 30-basis point decrease in Manhattan’s vacancy rate, from 13.1% in May to 12.8% last month, occurs as asking rents also tick downward, says Cassidy Turley. Robert Sammons, director of research for the services firm’s New York region, writes in the report that the overall average asking rent slid for the third consecutive month, easing to $47.95 per square foot from $48.42 per square foot in May. “The recent decline, however, can be tracked back to a rise in availability Downtown with its generally lower rent levels, as two Midtown submarkets actually recorded increases in asking prices,” Sammons writes.
Concurrently, James Delmonte, VP and director of research for Jones Lang LaSalle’s New York office, says in a releasing announcing JLL’s midyear report that leasing activity has been up considerably over the year thus far, “while the number of large blocks of space coming back to the market has slowed.” With demand finally outweighing supply, Delmonte says, “vacancy levels improved in some submarkets leading to positive absorption for the overall market. Encouraging data in the labor market bodes well for the market in the long term, but overall asking rents are likely to remain stationary for the remainder of the year.”
JLL puts Midtown’s overall vacancy rate at 13.2% at mid-year 2010, a decrease of 3% from the overall vacancy rate of 13.6 percent recorded in the first quarter. Midtown South’s quarter-to-quarter vacancy decline was even sharper with a 6.3% drop to 10.1%, while Downtown’s overall vacancy rate rose 5.7% to 12.1%, an increase due largely to an uptick in the class B vacancy rate. Class A vacancy in Lower Manhattan saw a decline during the second quarter, according to JLL.
In terms of rents, JLL’s spring 2010 Skyline Review notes that the rate of decline in asking rents among Manhattan’s trophy office properties has decreased substantially. For both Midtown and Downtown’s top-end buildings, the six-month was in the low single-digit range at 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively. That compares to the six-month declines of 17.2% in Midtown and 21.7% for Downtown that JLL reported in the fall of 2009.
“With Manhattan’s office market reaching bottom and leasing activity increasing, there are signs that trophy properties will be the first segment of the office market to recover,” Delmonte says in a release. “Historically, trophy properties outperform the broader Class A inventory, in pricing and leasing, even during down markets.”
Meanwhile, job growth in New York City through May, the latest month for which data are available, was positive for five consecutive months although it did slow in May, Sammons writes. For 2010, private sector positions have now climbed by 58,500, with office-using jobs up by 23,000. “Going forward, financial regulation, soon to be passed by Congress, could affect the jobs situation in New York City (in a negative or, interestingly enough, positive manner), though that remains to be seen,” writes Sammons.
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