The Digital Revolution Impact On Real Estate

We have all been hearing about Twitter, Facebook, Fliker and many other forms of digital communication and how younger people are spending their time online, on mobile devices, and changing the social patterns. What you do not hear about much is the massive impact all of this is starting to have on real estate and the speed at which it is suddenly happening. Office space requirements are changing at many companies, law firms, banks and other places. Private offices are quickly becoming obsolete in many companies. Open spaces and less space per employee is now becoming the rule. One major law firm has now set 210 sq ft as the space allotted to any person-including partners. If a partner takes more space it is deducted from the available to others, so partners are getting smaller offices. The law library is gone. Paper storage is almost gone. The big secretarial pool is gone. The media, ad agencies, and similar companies are knocking down offices and making cubicles and open spaces. Some companies have departments where two people share a cubicle with one in the office two days and the other two or three. With I pads, I phones, blackberrys and the like, many young people work from all sorts of alternative locations. Just multiply this times all the major companies, and the office space required in the future will shrink materially. Lease terms will require very different TI and shorter term so the tenant can change as its needs reduce. Young staff-under 35- think it fine to be working from out of the office. Teenagers spend huge amounts of time online in one way or another.

Recruiting for law firms and other kinds of companies has changed dramatically lately with the firms having to offer very different work environments. Talk to young executives and they talk about the environment more than anything. In retail the way stores accommodate online shopping in the future, how stores are laid out, how brands promote themselves, is all changing rapidly. While brick stores are not going away, the demand for additional retail space is likely to be curtailed as more and more shopping is online. It is becoming common for a physical store to be the showroom, and then the customer goes home and executes the purchase online. Some firms now give a new employee $3,000 on their first day to go buy their own computer, but out of the $3,000 the employee must pay to maintain it himself. The firm only provides the servers and printing, not maintenance.

Video conferencing from mobile phones and I Pads is now here. It is brand new, but sweeping in at warp speed. Why travel if you can sit at home or in the park and hold a video conference. While pressing the flesh is always going to be important, it will be much less so as the younger generation grows up and become employees. They conduct their whole life online today. They no longer watch TV or go to the movie theater. They watch on their PDA or their computer. You may say who wants to watch a movie on a PDA, but they do. So what happens to movie theaters over the next ten years.

If all of this seems to you to be out there in make believe, or if you think you heard this all before and nothing really changed, or it is just not your experience, then you are about tot be overrun. I just spent two hours with several gurus in this area in preparation for a ULI New York panel we are running Oct 5 on this subject. I have a hard time recalling any two hours that was more eye opening and fascinating. The change is already here and you need to get informed, or it will cost you money in the future.

If you invest, lend to, operate, or design real estate of any kind, you need to get informed on where the digital world is going, and you need to start now. It is a revolution that is equal to the industrial revolution in terms of the long term impact on how we will live and work, and how the culture is changing over the next ten years and forward. The impact on which buildings will be the trophy properties because they provide the electronic and other amenitized environment, including green, that is already being demanded by young employees, will affect who makes money in real estate over the next 10 years. Which residential buildings are wired to accommodate the coming demands for power and outlets. Even my panelists, who are young and the real gurus of this world, say they have trouble keeping up because it is changing so fast, and the rest of us are not even in the starting blocks.

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Joel Ross

Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.