NEW YORK CITY-While they’re not putting CMBS at the top of their shopping lists at the moment, senior fixed-income investors are taking a cheerier view of the sector than they have in some time. The share of investors expecting significant credit deterioration across commercial mortgage-backed issues fell to the lowest level in two years, says the latest Fitch Ratings/Fixed Income Forum Survey.
“For the first time in several years, the share of investors expecting significant credit deterioration fell to less than 10% across all asset classes,” according to the report accompanying the survey results. “Even areas that are still facing headwinds” ⎯ notably CMBS and municipal bonds ⎯ “had less than 10% of investors expecting significant deterioration, although roughly 50% of investors still saw some deterioration across both.”
A second-quarter CMBS review earlier this month from analyst Sagar Parikh, VP of US fixed income at the Los Angeles-based TCW Group, illuminates the improved investor outlook for the securities. Year to date, CMBS is up 12.1% on the Barclays Capital Aggregate Index, Parikh points out.
Then there was the pricing of two multi-borrower CMBS transactions during Q2, marking a milestone in the resurgence of mortgage-backed securities. “If the number of multi-borrower, new-issue transactions continues to increase, it could provide a much-needed additional avenue of financing for the tremendous amount of loans maturing over the next couple of years,” Parikh writes. And while he adds that the sector “has a long way to go in its deleveraging process,” he notes servicers’ greater willingness to begin liquidating loans out of the special servicing pipeline.
The 96 senior investment personnel surveyed by Fitch in June puts corporate bonds at the top of the heap for issuance this year, followed by asset-backed securities, RMBS and CMBS. That was the same pecking order investors followed in the January edition of the biannual survey.
Slightly more than 2% of respondents to the latest survey said they expect “very strong” or “strong” CMBS issuance this year, compared to about 36% who hold that expectation for investment-grade or speculative-grade corporate bonds. The 64.4% of respondents who anticipated “moderate” or “low” CMBS issuance this year compares favorably to the 34.5% who said that about CDOs, as does the percentage of investors who think new issues will be only “minimal”: 33.3% in the case of CMBS and 64.4% in the case of CDOs. Compared to the January survey, “there was a slight improvement in issuance forecasts for CMBS over the coming year but not for CDOs,” according to Fitch.
As was the case with ABS and RMBS spreads, investors who anticipate that CMBS spreads will remain within recent ranges over the next 12 months constitute a majority. The percentage of respondents holding that view of CMBS spreads has increased from 28.3% to 41.6% over the past year.
Although they expressed some qualms about the prospect of increased financial regulations, two-thirds of investors surveyed said they see lending conditions loosening over the next year. Moreover, the European debt crisis and geopolitical conditions each ranked higher as risk factors than the unintended effects of new laws. Most survey respondents don’t see inflation as a major concern, and only 2% said they’re concerned the US will slip back into a recession.
Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.
Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:
- Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
*May exclude premium content© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.