When I started out in Wall St 45 years ago, there were basically the investment banks and the wire houses-retail broker dealers. The investment banks focused on the corporate clients and built long standing relationships. It was the relationship that built the investment banking franchise and the steady fee income. It was not the last transaction that mattered. It was not about what other products can I jam them with. There were no CMBS, derivatives trading, CDS, math wiz kids with structured products nobody really understood, nor was there the attitude of short term trades to get this year’s bonus. The bankers understood that they built real wealth by building long relationships. The bankers were in charge of the major name firms.

Along the way the traders shoved aside the bankers and the major investment banks became trading houses and eventually giant hedge funds. As part of the same evolution, partnerships became public companies and instead of partners using their own money to run the firms and to risk investments, it became OPM and that accelerated the evolution of what happened to Wall St. Comp went from top executives of Morgan Stanley and other firms making $7-10 million, to ordinary traders who had none of their own funds at risk, making several times that. There is a vast difference in how you conduct your business when it is your name on the door and when you are risking your own money vs when you are a public company and it is traders who run the firm with a totally different transaction by transaction mentality. That is the underlying essence of why things went so badly. All the rest is simply how it happened through esoteric financial engineering, over leverage, and hiring people to run groups within firms who had no understanding of the word long term.

The effect on real estate was that instead of dealing with your local banker, or with even a money center banker, developers dealt with kids in Wall St who only knew how to maximize the trade, or how to complicate the structure, but who had no real estate experience and who had a traders mentality. It is not that many local bankers of prior years were not dumb, nor that they did not make bad mistakes, nor that they did not over fund real estate bubbles. The difference is that now, due to the way Wall St evolved, the size of the problem and difficulty unwinding the mess is vastly more problematic and will take much longer. The S&L’s got in trouble because the rules were changed and they were encouraged to go outside their competence and make all sorts of bad commercial loans, and there was extensive fraud. But the magnitude was not so large that the RTC could not clean it up in fairly short order. It was also somewhat concentrated in a few major pockets of trouble like Texas and California, so it was easier to concentrate resources to clean it up.

Now we have exported the crisis to the entire world through the trading of all the various financial instruments that traders were able to dump on European banks and others. As opposed to a loan going bad and being sold by RTC, we now have REMIC rules, tranches, derivatives of indexes of who knows what, layers of mezz loans, and in many cases youngsters who have no idea what real estate fundamentals are all about. My own experience and that of my friends doing advisory work, is that the people responsible for solving the workouts have little if any real estate knowledge, and the government is reluctant to just deal with the problem like we did with RTC.

The result is we are going to be spending many years cleaning up the mess, it will cost hundreds of billions more than has already been recognized, or maybe more, banks will be hobbled for a long time, which will slow economic recovery generally, and at some point reality will have to be faced that no matter how long the extensions, values need to be reset, and losses recognized. Values for most real estate are not returning to 2007 levels for maybe 7-10 years, and it is not clear how long on an inflation adjusted basis, which is the only real way to look at it. You need to set your investment strategies accordingly and your return expectations. Don’t let New York and a few major market core deals distort your view of everything else.

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Joel Ross

Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.