NEW YORK CITY—There’s almost no way to keep the volume of US CMBS loans in special servicing from topping $100 billion by year’s end, Fitch Ratings said Wednesday. In a report accompanying the announcement, managing director Stephanie Petosa wrote, “The number of loans transferring to special servicing is growing exponentially.”

The velocity of loans transferring back to the master servicer also is on the rise and is expected to remain constant through the end of this year. Yet neither the velocity of resolved loans nor the average balance are large enough to keep pace, says Fitch. Year to date, $19.8 billion worth of CMBS loans transferred out of special servicing, of which 39% was related to last year’s General Growth Properties bankruptcy.

That’s more than double 2009’s 12-month total of resolved loans and a larger balance than the $18 billion of loans that went into special servicing during the first six months of 2010. But it’s dwarfed by the total balance of loans in special servicing at the end of the second quarter: $92 billion, a number that will likely reach $110 billion by December, Fitch says. The average balance of resolved loans YTD has been $6 million, compared to $17 million on loans newly transferred to special servicing.

“Keeping up with the rapid influx of delinquent loans has been a real struggle for servicers,” Petosa says in a statement. “While the increase in loans transferring out of special servicing is encouraging, the volume of large transfers must be taken into account, plus only time will tell if the modifications will stick.”

The average caseload for special servicing asset managers ticked upward during the first six months of ’10 to 17 loans, from 16 at the end of last year. At the company level, the workload ranges from 13 loans per asset manager at Berkadia Commercial Mortgage and Midland Loan Services to 36 per manager at LNR Partners.

Currently there are 5,207 CMBS loans in special servicing. Sixty-three percent of the $92-billion total balance as of Q2 comes from loans that were transferred due to imminent default. However, Fitch says the ratio of delinquent vs. current loans in special servicing is 60 to 40, and the report notes, “The majority of loans that transfer as current eventually become delinquent.” Not surprisingly, 84% of the total dollar volume comes from loans that were originated between 2005 and 2007, the peak years for commercial mortgage securitization.

Thanks to the transfer of $4.9 billion in legacy debt from the Blackstone Group’s acquisition of Equity Office Properties, CMBS loans backed by office properties now comprise the largest share of the total balance at 30.5%. With GGP loans getting resolved or modified, retail’s share of specially serviced CMBS is headed in the opposite direction: down to 20% at the end of Q2 from 32% at year-end ‘09.

Fitch says that smaller-balance loans tend to get resolved via foreclosure, discounted payoffs or note sales. Larger loans, mainly from recent vintage CMBS, are by and large being modified andor extended and returned to master servicing, the agency says. Fitch plans to assess the various types of modifications being utilized by servicers, and their respective success rate, in a separate report to be released in the coming weeks.

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.