July housing sales numbers—down 27% from the month before--sent shudders through government, businesses and the investor world. It was more evidence of a slowing recovery. Buyers pulled back without the expired federal tax credit incentive. Fears increased that housing values and sales may sag further, possibly setting off the dreaded double dip. Meanwhile, mortgage rates stand at all time lows and home prices have already dropped 30-40% in many places. So what does this all really mean?

Government leaders (Obama, Geitner, Bernanke) will continue to cheerlead and try jawboning confidence. Politicians may criticize each other and throw around blame—“the country is going in the wrong direction under so and so (Obama, Geitner, Bernanke")—but nobody gets elected saying America is starting to fall behind and may not bounce back for a long time. Economists for big financial institutions don’t keep their jobs by turning excessively negative about U.S. prospects either—that’s bad for business. So explanations for the extended housing malaise range from high unemployment levels—people fear they may lose their job so put off buying when they otherwise can; and lenders have been too stringent, cutting off people who could otherwise buy; to people fear that values will go down even more so they are holding off when they otherwise would be back in the market. The rationalizations go on--once the employment picture improves and lenders loosen up, we’ll be back, fears will dissipate, and everything will be okay.

And you know if employment improves and wages track up that will certainly help, and if lenders loosened up that would too. But employment prospects look reasonably bleak—the economy isn’t creating enough jobs and loose credit standards helped get us into this mess. Wages for most Americans have been stagnant to down for more than a decade. Maybe lenders have over-corrected somewhat, but do we really want Fannie and Freddie to throw more good taxpayer money after bad?

Recommended For You

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2025 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.