Almost two years ago I speculated about whether a bad economy might lead to rising crime in 24-hour cities and lead to quality of life declines, possibly even a return to the scary bad old days of unsafe streets—mugging and murder mayhem. Aside from modest upticks in murder rates off rock bottom generational lows in some cities like New York and Washington DC, we’re a far cry from “Death Wish” and “Mean Streets” days. In the last year violent crime has even dipped in Chicago.
But how long can that last if the poverty rate continues to rise, states continue to shut down prisons to save costs, cities shave police forces to stanch red ink, and demographics propels a bulge in young adult echo boomer males, the most likely age cohort to commit violent crimes?
Intuitively, you would expect these forces and realities to take hold—just not yet. Or are policing techniques so improved that we don’t have to worry?
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
