TEANECK, NJ-The present state of the commercial real estate market is the result of a perfect storm of unrealistic expectations, property devaluation and corporate malaise, so said three top executives at NAIOP New Jersey’s recent chapter meeting here.
Responding to a question by discussion leader Alex Klatskin of Forsgate Industrial Partners, Glenn Rufrano, CEO of Cushman & Wakefield, focused on risk, especially from the standpoint of funds from operations and "growth expectations" in the 2000 to 2007 period leading up to the recession. "In 2004 and 2005, in particular, the REITs thought they had to grow FFO more than they needed to," he said. “The expectations that were created led to merchant building--or building to sell in order to boost FFO."
The result, Rufrano said were many REITs taking on more debt to compete with their peer group. "What's going to happen now in the REIT business,” he then asked. "Will FFO change?" No doubt, the industry has seen balance sheet risk for the lending community, fueled by overleveraging. Still, "lenders did a good job in 2008 to 2010 as they maintained the risk of their balance sheets," Rufrano said, predicting that "more lenders will begin to sell" their inherited properties, and that the next five years will see a trend of deleveraging.
Klatskin, a former president of NAIOP New Jersey and chairman-elect of NAIOP Corporate, posed the question, "how do you look at risk differently today?" Conceding the larger impact of unrealistic FFO and earnings expectations by many in the recent past, "there was little regard for the fundamentals--market conditions, rents and so forth," said Mitchell Hersh, president and CEO of Mack-Cali Realty Corp. He termed the rising prices of the mid-2000s an “unrealistic paradigm” and “unsustainable.” Mack-Cali is one of the REITs that has better withstood the perfect storm through a process of "modestly and conservatively managing the balance sheet," he said.
"We also faced a financial system on the verge of an abyss," Hersh noted. "The answer now is to sit in neutral, preserve every dollar and manage balance sheets in a way to get through these times. There are still companies out there that feel it's necessary to raise the bar on expectations. That is a bubble waiting to happen."
There is a lot of expectation in the marketplace, and people are looking for opportunity, Klatskin noted. “There are property owners who do not understand real estate,” Rufrano said, pointing to the phenomenon of special servicers taking over troubled assets. "There continue to be special servicer opportunities."
According to Hersh, “There is an appetite among institutional investors for yield.” He pointed specifically to high-end, class A suburban properties as one target. "They are also buying debt,” he added. “But the conventional opportunities for properties that you would normally want to buy are almost nonexistent. There has been a devaluation of 20% to 40% for those type of properties, and you don't want to take that kind of hit."
Responding to a question by Klatskin about the state of the brokerage business, Rufrano indicated that for Cushman & Wakefield, "revenues are up dramatically in the past six months. Our capital markets group is selling a lot of assets. Margins are squeezed, but they're squeezed everywhere."
This is the “new normal, and it is going to go on for a long time," Hersh predicted. "There is a general malaise and paralysis in corporate decision-making, coupled with cost factors and general uncertainty,” he noted. “A lack of clarity is pervasive in the marketplace. But the current pricing does provide an opportunity for tenants, who will begin to move slowly back in the market.”
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