Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2011, which I author for PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute, gets unveiled on Wednesday and Thursday at the Urban Land Fall Meeting in Washington, D.C. I’ll have much more to discuss about the report later in the week, but suffice to say—things will be getting better next year, but certainly not quickly enough to make most real estate players very happy. Steve Blank, ULI senior fellow, and I reveal the report findings, at 9:30 am Thursday at the Convention Center. We hope to see you.
In the meantime, let’s talk more about infrastructure. I got stuck mid afternoon last Friday leaving Manhattan for upstate. The FDR Drive was backed up, and the George Washington Bridge was jammed as usual headed into typically constricted New Jersey highways. Mind you I was getting out of town well before official rush hour, but it didn’t matter. Along the way I was listening on the radio to the back and forth over New Jersey Governor Christie’s decision to derail the country’s biggest infrastructure project, a desperately needed rail transit tunnel from northern New Jersey into the city.
Now the Governor may be posturing to get more federal dollars and no doubt his state is in the fiscal tank. But New Jersey’s economy is totally dependent on many of its citizens getting in and out of New York City to earn a living, the state is one of the nation’s most congested thanks to unmitigated suburban sprawl, and the powers to be continue to ensure that drivers (is there any other way to get around in New Jersey?) have one of the country’s lowest gasoline taxes and the lowest gas prices in the Northeast. At the same time, many of the state’s main highways, constructed 50 or 60 years ago, hit the end of their lifecycles when major repairs and refurbishments are needed on overpasses, bridges, and steelwork. Christie wants to divert funds to these needs instead of the transit tunnel. And of course he doesn’t want to raise taxes to pay for anything.
So the Jersey-Manhattan transit tunnel poses all the issues confronting the U.S. in fashioning 21st Century infrastructure. We need to provide more alternatives beyond car travel for getting in and out of our major economic gateway hubs like New York where economic activity concentrates. We need to refashion how people travel around our metro suburbs offering integrated highway-transit-pedestrian solutions. And we need to be prepared to pay for new systems and repairs. Otherwise, we will find ourselves gridlocked in traffic and our economic centers paralyzed in congestion. It’s not exactly a recipe for economic growth, but it’s already happening.
It probably will take more round-the-clock traffic jams and road closings, but at some point New Jersey and other states as well as the federal government will be forced to raise gas taxes, institute more and higher tolls, and other forms of user fees to pay for what we desperately need. Infrastructure must be viewed as an essential investment in our future, not just another cost by “wasteful” government. And oh by the way—these investments will create a ton of jobs along the way.
Our generation may have forgotten. But all those bridges, tunnels and interstates were paid for once—by us. Now it’s time to re-up.
On Thursday October 14 at 9:30 am, the Emerging Trends session will be held at the Washington D.C. Convention Center, Level 2, Hall E, the same room as the morning ULI general session.
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
