WASHINGTON, DC-Republicans are going to take over the House of Representatives, pick up a number of governorships--which is especially significant in a re-districting year--but will not likely get the Senate. So said Larry Sabato, University of Virginia Center for Politics director, one of the keynote speakers at the Urban Land Institute’s annual conference, which is winding down today.
Sabato’s track record is exceedingly good, so for all intents we can skip the debate about last-minute surges and erroneous poll numbers and get to the question GlobeSt.com readers most want to know: what will a Republican surge mean for commercial real estate? Normally this is a subject of greatest concern in a presidential election year but the economy is still fraught with uncertainty and partisan passions are running higher than ever. In short, even a mid-cycle election will have implications for the industry.
The most obvious change will be legislative gridlock, Sabato said. Many of the winning Republican seats will be held by so-called Tea Party candidates, who are in no mood to compromise. There is zero chance of Congress passing ambitious legislation in the next two years, Sabato said. “In fact, I doubt we could even see this next Congress agree on language for a Mother’s Day resolution.” Controversial legislation the industry had been dreading, such as carried interest, is all but certain to be relegated to the backburner until after the presidential election.
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