WASHINGTON, DC-Republicans are going to take over the House of
 Representatives, pick up a number of governorships--which is
 especially significant in a re-districting year--but will not likely get
 the Senate. So said Larry Sabato, University of Virginia Center for
 Politics director, one of the keynote speakers at the Urban Land 
Institute’s annual conference, which is winding down today.

Sabato’s track record is exceedingly good, so for all intents we 
can skip the debate about last-minute surges and erroneous poll 
numbers and get to the question GlobeSt.com readers most want to know:
 what will a Republican surge mean for commercial real estate?
 Normally this is a subject of greatest concern in a presidential 
election year but the economy is still fraught with uncertainty and
 partisan passions are running higher than ever. In short, even a 
mid-cycle election will have implications for the industry.

The most obvious change will be legislative gridlock, Sabato said.
 Many of the winning Republican seats will be held by so-called Tea Party candidates, who are in no mood to compromise. There is zero chance 
of Congress passing ambitious legislation in the next two years,
 Sabato said. “In fact, I doubt we could even see this next Congress 
agree on language for a Mother’s Day resolution.” Controversial 
legislation the industry had been dreading, such as carried interest,
 is all but certain to be relegated to the backburner until after the
 presidential election.

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Erika Morphy

Erika Morphy has been writing about commercial real estate at GlobeSt.com for more than ten years, covering the capital markets, the Mid-Atlantic region and national topics. She's a nerd so favorite examples of the former include accounting standards, Basel III and what Congress is brewing.