NEW YORK CITY-The Moody’s/REAL All Property Type Aggregate Index hit a new low in August, the ratings agency said Tuesday. With a 3.3% decrease to 105.37 from the month before, it surpasses the previous low mark of 107.98 set in October 2009, and prices have effectively returned to early 2002 levels.

“The data suggest that the commercial real estate market has become trifurcated, with prices for larger trophy assets rising, prices for distressed assets declining sharply and prices for smaller but healthy properties remaining essentially flat,” writes senior analyst Nick Levidy in the report. He adds that one way to view index returns is by looking at the interplay of these three components within the overall market. “The index again turned negative this month in part because large negative returns on distressed properties created a drag that outweighed the positive and flat results of the performing properties.”

In December 2000, when Moody’s and Real Estate Analytics began the Commercial Property Price Indices, the Consumer Price Index was pegged at 100. From the start of the decade through the beginning of the economic downturn, commercial real estate prices grew at a much faster rate than inflation, writes Levidy. That changed about a year ago.

“In June 2009, as the recession gained steam, commercial real estate prices fell below the CPI and have not yet rebounded to that level,” he writes. If commercial real estate prices had tracked the rate of inflation since December 2000, the CPPI would now be 19% higher. Over time, “we expect the CPPI to revert to a long-term trend line close to that of the CPI,” adds Levidy.

The report, which REAL prepares using data from Real Capital Analytics, notes that the number of repeat sales in August was close to the number of repeat sales in July. At the same time, the dollar amount was slightly higher in August, totaling $1.85 billion, compared to $1.35 billion in July.

“However, the number of repeat sales remains significantly below the peak,” Levidy writes. “When sales volume begins to rise some of the recent choppiness in the index will begin to subside.”

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.