LONDON-After two years of upheaval, signs of recovery are emerging in Europe’s office markets, but the outlook remains mixed with recovery taking place at different speeds, says realtor King Sturge.
A few lead markets are now characterized by rising take-up and rents, and falling vacancy and yields, it said in its latest survey. “Here, global links have been the critical factor in the early rebound,” commented King Sturge’s Andrew Burrell. “In western Europe, the green signals are clearest in London, Geneva and Paris, where businesses have benefited from well-established global connections, particularly in finance. In eastern Europe, it is in the emerging economies of Russia and Turkey where the office rebound has been strongest, fed by a recovery in exports and commodity prices.”
The picture is weaker elsewhere. In the west, economic divisions run deep, with recovery in the south stalled by the Greek debt crisis. Most notable office laggards are Athens and Madrid, where the slump is expected to continue and the lights remain firmly on red. Outside of Moscow and Istanbul in the east, demand has also stabilized at a low level and rents remain under pressure.
But the early stages of recovery are not the best guide to future prospects and performance differences should narrow as the recovery spreads in the next two years. A number of factors will ensure the health of office occupier markets: The supply pipeline remains limited and vacancy is set to ease in most markets over the next year or more. In addition, speculative development is unlikely to return soon, with rents low and banks still rebuilding their balance sheets. Economic recovery is expected to continue, though at different rates. The Eurozone will lag the UK and Nordics on GDP growth, with the emerging economies of eastern Europe putting in the strongest performance.
In line with this, office employment growth is expected to resume next year and will support office floor-space demand. “Economic forecasts suggest that the larger international centres in the west will continue to perform well,” said Burrell. “The global reach of London ensures it is the largest creator of office jobs over the next five years. Bucharest, Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam, Munich and Milan are also set to expand at healthy rates.”
Allan Saunderson is a managing editor of Property Investor Europe and a contributor to GlobeSt.com.
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