"There is too much money chasing the goods," remarked Leslie Wohlman Himmel, partner Himmel + Merignoff Properties, during the panel discussion. The panel, moderated by Vivian Marino, staff editor of real estate at the Times, was comprised of Himmel; Joanne Podell, EVP of retail services, Cushman & Wakefield; Mark Weiss, vice chairman, Newmark Knight Frank; and Woody Heller, executive managing director and group head, capital transactions group of Studley.

Heller, Podell, Weiss and Himmel

Heller rhetorically asked the audience when the last time they thought a property was traded for less than it was worth, then summed it up: "Prices will continue to be aggressive." The product that came onto the market was well under what the industry had anticipated concerning distress, he explained, and the money is about normal, so prices will feel above what they should be. He said, "If you are not willing to bid for a rent spike, you will be outbid by someone who is more optimistic."

Podell said that right now the New York market is looking great for retail. The meat-packing district with the advent of the Highline is coming together and rates are rising, even below 49^th street on Fifth Avenue, with a stat of 90% of New York visitors saying they come for the shopping. For now, things are looking up, particularly in the Times Square area.

Weiss was a little more dour about the outlook, saying he doesn't quite trust the positive absorption numbers, which seem to grow autonomous of new construction, making them generally suspect. Positive absorption was going up, he noted, but availability stayed the same because some companies were counting space renewals as absorption. "The market is governed by feeling," Weiss explained. "Prices will remain the same," until it feels like a recovery. He also noted that in this kind of economy, tenants adapt to rising rates. "The more expensive places become, tenants innovate and people will make do with less space," Weiss explained. He was not bullish on rates rising and creating more revenue.

Heller discussed the idea that concessions were going down, roughly by half from last year and Weiss concurred, saying it was inevitable. When there's no activity in the market, concessions rise, he explained. "Landlords bought deals, but it's an artificial point in time," Weiss pointed out. Rents will remains the same as concessions generally go back to normal. However Himmel said that from a landlord perspective, it was more about lease terms. They were seeing terms go back to 10 years with a five-year option.

Regarding new purchases Heller said there was optimism for the market, but it was going to take some work. Weiss followed up, noting that we'd already reached the bottom of the trough and anyone that bought now, would have the sick feeling in their stomach that they didn't get a great deal.