SADDLE BROOK, NJ-Despite a hiccup in improving market fundamentals within New Jersey’s industrial market for the third quarter, which closed with 3.29 million square feet of new leasing activity across the state, locally based CB Richard Ellis' Third Quarter 2010 New Jersey Industrial MarketView report concludes that new leasing and renewal velocity will remain on pace to exceed 2009 and 2008 totals by 18% and 31%, respectively.
"The national economy continues to rebound slowly in terms of job growth, increased consumer confidence and capital investment expenditures, which is illustrated by New Jersey's weaker industrial market third quarter fundamentals," says William R.Waxman, senior vice president of CBRE. "However, we have seen stable returns throughout the past nine months, in terms of new leases, renewals and sale activity. Ultimately, we remain confident in the state's industrial marketplace and we project strength in the fourth quarter and beyond."
Additionally, the report shows positive signals in the number of user sales completed, with 26 transactions occurring in the third quarter alone, which amounted to a 34.6% increase from the third quarter of 2009. And, a continued upward trend is reported in blend and extend transactions throughout New Jersey, as tenants race to lock in attractive rental rates over the long term for the remainder of the year.
Furthermore, a seven-cent decline in average net asking rental rates was reported in New Jersey in the third quarter, down from last quarter's $5.45 per square foot to $5.38 per square foot, which represents a 20-year inflation adjusted low and a continued decrease over 10 consecutive quarters.
The Central New Jersey marketplace experienced a more severe decline in asking lease rates (nine cents to $4.65 per square foot) compared to properties located in Northern New Jersey (seven cents to $6.27 per square foot). As the gap between the asking rent versus the taking rent continues to narrow, the report predicts that asking lease rates will bottom out in the near future.
Average asking sale prices also trended downward in the third quarter, with Central New Jersey experiencing a 5.3% decline compared to properties in Northern New Jersey, which reported just a 1.9% decrease. As average asking prices continue to decline, cash-flush companies are well-positioned to take advantage of the opportunity to own.
Despite consistent sale and lease velocity, the report also reported a significant increase in the overall availability rate, which closed the quarter at 12.2%, or 30 basis points higher than last quarter's 11.9%. The negative absorption rate, which remains in negative territory for the tenth consecutive quarter, was most notably impacted by the newly available space of 15 large assets to the New Jersey marketplace (11 of which were located in Central New Jersey), each totaling more than 100,000 square feet.
"Construction activity remained flat in the third quarter, with six active projects currently under construction totaling 258,800 square feet, two of which are located along Central New Jersey's Route 287/Exit 10 submarket," comments Mindy Lissner, senior vice president of CBRE. "As rental and sale rates continue to decline, the current buyer's market will allow for significant opportunities to arise for investors and user/buyers to continue to take advantage of, which will ultimately lead to an increase in leasing and sales velocity."
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