BOSTON-The month of September experienced a drop in loan prices, according to data collected by DebtX. The loan sale advisors saw collateralized CMBS commercial real estate loans dip to 80.5% by September 30, 2010. The 0.5% drop from August 31, 2010 was still up in value year-over-year from 77.2%. This halts a five-month increase in prices.
"The numbers can be skewed pretty significantly by larger loans going bad. And what we had were a number of large hotel loans become distressed," Kingsley Greenland, CEO of DebtX, tells GlobeSt.com. There were 56,992 loans with a $667.5 billion aggregate principal balance representing collateral in 620 US CMBS trusts.
" Most of these loans were made before 2008, so they were made at elevated values," Greenland explains. He points out that there is a little more to it than vintage. The loans were losing value, but were also anticipated to get better and were therefore written on a pro-forma basis. As the performance declined, prices dropped even further. "Classic to what you saw just previous to the bubble," he says.
Greenland expects for this band of securitized loans to continue its decline based on erased value and pro-forma, but questions remain as to how many refinances are worth it for some of these assets. He feels that question will persevere through the next year.
To see the CMBS loan pricing analysis from DebtX, go to www.debtx.com
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