New York City-On Tuesday, the Real Estate Lenders Association held a networking breakfast at the Yale Club here. The event was capped off by a presentation from Jordan Kaplan, president and CEO of Douglas Emmett, a Southern California-based REIT that is active in the commercial and multifamily property markets in California and Hawaii.

“There are a few trades coming in the next 60 days that will help to firm up pricing,” Kaplan told the crowd, alluding to the trouble establishing value in today’s market. For its part, Douglas Emmett recently closed a deal on Wilshire Bundy Plaza in Los Angeles that ran around $360 per square foot and there were several other trades in the area that closed at $400 a foot.

“These are buildings with large tenants that are almost 100% occupied,” Kaplan said. “But, interestingly, there is a building on Olympic Boulevard with one-month leases that will probably also go for $400 a square foot. This should help us get a feel for where values settle.”

Kaplan noted that in the 1970s and ’80s, most equity came from friends or big domestic life companies, while Wall Street dominated the most of the ’90s. “I never really left the US then,” he joked. “But the last decade has been dominated by foreign players.” In fact, 75% of the firm’s last fund was raised by foreign investors. “The US is really the gold standard when it comes to moving in money,” he observed.

According to Kaplan, the top choices for overseas investors are New York City; Washington, DC; Boston; Los Angeles; and San Francisco, with the first two cities grabbing the most money from investors’ pockets. But Kaplan noted that “there is a trend toward L.A. as investors look for the next frontier.” Outside of these five major metros, however, “equity is a desert,” he said.

And speaking of L.A., Kaplan spent a good deal of time talking about the office market there, which he said went from a 25 million square foot market to a 45 million square foot one in just five to six years. “It positioned us perfectly to take on the recession that hit in the early ’90s,” he joked. As a result, most of the decade was spent absorbing all of that space and, today, the market is “extremely supply constrained.”

Part of L.A.’s appeal is the port, which is the largest in the US. “There is also a huge education component, entertainment, medical research, healthcare, tourism, engineering and tech has moved down from Northern California,” Kaplan said. In addition, there are very few large tenants, with the average running around 20,000 square feet. “There are no real dominate tenants; everybody is included.”

As for Douglas Emmett’s portfolio, vacancy in 2006 and 2007 was around 4%, but that number deteriorated over the course of 2008. “We’ve had nine quarters of negative absorption,” Kaplan said. But don’t blame defaults. “Those are way down, but space reduction is continuing,” he continued. “Real rents, including concessions, are off about 25% to 30% from peak levels. But we need a few quarters of positive absorption before rents increase.”

Douglas Emmett is also bullish on buying. “There are good deals to be had,” Kaplan related, adding that his company racked up 28 million additional square feet during the recession.

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