The various crises around the world make predicting anything very difficult now. It is clear N Korea just wants more attention and payoffs, and China is happy to have us support the north so they don’t have to. In the end it is likely that situation will continue with no change and periodic flare-ups. Europe and the Euro is another story entirely.
It is clear the PIIGS were gluttons and they will go back to being small counties with troubled economies for many years. This is nothing new for them or Europe. There is a history of these sorts of problems going back hundreds of years. Europe is yesterday’s news and the decline of the area will continue unabated. The world is shifting its epicenter and Europe is destined to not be a major factor in the economic events of the future. Germany will be a factor, and the UK will retain some impact, but the rest of Europe simply is a sideshow.
The only issue is whether the Euro continues to exist or if the strains which were always inherent in the union are finally to break point. Reality is most of Europe needs to devalue to be able to go forward, and that will inevitably happen. Germany cannot devalue, so there is the break point. In short, Europe is not where you want to be buying assets at this time. The uncertainty is just too great.
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Joel Ross
Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.
