NEW YORK CITY-The local economy is rebounding faster than that of the nation as a whole, but not rapidly enough to close a budget gap that could reach $5.6 billion in fiscal 2014, New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli says in a report released Wednesday. The report says the actual shortfalls for FY 2012 and beyond could be significantly larger depending on the outcome of the state budget, collective bargaining negotiations and how both state and city replace expiring federal stimulus funds.

Private-sector employment in New York City grew 2.5% between December 2009 and October of this year, more than double the national rate. The city has now regained almost half of the private sector jobs lost during the recession, although the unemployment rate remains high. Eighty-eight percent of new jobs added in New York State during this 10-month period are based in the city, many related to retail, health care and restaurants.

“New York City has relied heavily on nonrecurring resources to balance its budget during the recession,” the report states. “Maintaining core municipal services at current levels will become increasingly more difficult as those resources are exhausted and the state takes steps to balance its budget.” The state is projecting a $9-billion budget gap for next year, a shortfall that could have major implications for the city.

DiNapoli notes that the city’s debt service is expected to grow from $5.2 billion in FY 2011 to $6.7 billion by FY ‘14, a 31% increase. He adds that this rate of growth exceeds that of the city fund revenues.

On a brighter note for the city, Wall Street earned $21.4 billion during the first three quarters of 2010. That’s far less than last year’s record of $61.4 billion, but that tally was fueled by federal assistance, and DiNapoli says the securities industry is on track for the second-highest level of profitability on record as the year winds down.

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.