IREM Presentation

LOS ANGELES-“I think what summarized the end of 2010 for me best was at the Allen Matkin’s Christmas party when everyone was in a good mood, but they didn’t know why.” So said Lew Horne, executive managing director of the greater Los Angeles and Orange County regions of CB Richard Ellis Inc., when beginning his forecast summary at the 17th Annual IREM Real Estate Forecast Program. The event was held Thursday at the Ritz Carlton/JW Marriott at LA LIVE and drew approximately 500 attendees.

Horne cited improving numbers in all property sectors. On the office side, he said tenants are starting to lock into longer term deals, and he said he expects that more sellers will enter the market who believe that fundamentals will be close to as good as they are going to get. However, he pointed out that the job growth remains essential. “Without job growth, all of the sectors will be affected, especially office,” he said.

Another concern Horne voiced about the office sector is that in urban areas, much of the institutional real estate is hindered by debt. “We are seeing landlords really reluctant to invest any tenant improvement dollars,” he said. “We are seeing this because the values have dropped, and we are concerned because that could affect activity.” In the coming year, he expects more distressed assets to hit the market. “The special services that we are talking to say they will be more aggressive in moving the assets out,” he said.

Kosmont, Horne, Thornberg

On the industrial side, there has been enormous improvement. “We saw very little distressed asset activity, and the few that we did see were picked up by private occupiers,” Horne said. He expects that occupiers and private investors will continue to dominate investment activity in the industrial sector.

Regarding multifamily, Horne noted that decreases in rental rates continue and there was a huge increase in sales last year, but he still sees a disconnect between buyers and sellers. “We see rents flattening for next year and fundamentals improving.” As for retail, Horne says that there is definitely an attitude that things will get better.

Next up was Larry Kosmont, president and CEO of Kosmont Cos., who talked more about the state of the state. He explained that in 2011, “you are going to see a budget battle like you have never seen before.”

One trend Kosmont said to watch is the fight about redevelopment, which he said is ongoing. “Redevelopment has always been controversial,” he said. “We protected the tax, but didn’t protect the entity.”

California’s triple threat, according to Kosmont, is unemployment, housing and government. In terms of government, he pointed out that some structural changes need to be made. “Ballot box budgeting is not the way to run the state and it isn’t going away,” he said. “People don’t even understand what they are voting about.”

Kosmont foresees commercial real estate moving in a better direction this year, but cites challenges to the commercial recovery—local and state deficits and unemployment for example.”

Christopher Thornberg, founding principal of Beacon Economics, isn’t normally as bullish as fellow forecasters, but he ended the day on a positive note. “I am not really worried about government issues or the economy in the short run,” he said.

Overall, he pointed out that incomes are up about 2% and are rising, affordability on housing is better, and the state is starting to add jobs to the economy. “When all is said and done, there is good news. The economy is moving forward.”

The best commercial space is apartments, according to Thornberg. As for retail space, “vacancy is falling, which is nothing but a price phenomenon.” As for the office market, Thornberg, like Horne, said it is still getting brutalized.

“If there was a time for the state to finally clean up its budget mess, this is the time because now we can handle it,” Thornberg said. “We do need to find better ways to collect revenues in the state.”

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Natalie Dolce

Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com and GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.