However, Thornberg points out that "consumers are finding their feet again, which has led to more than 100,000 additional jobs in retail and wholesale." As for other sectors, he explains that leisure and hospitality has also benefited, adding more than 180,000 positions over the past 11 months as people begin to dine out and entertain themselves again.

Thornberg also sees some positive signs. "Traditionally, businesses look to temporary workers to fill their short-term labor needs following a severe downturn," he says. "As the recovery gains steam, these workers are eventually replaced with permanent positions once employers feel confident enough to make long-term labor investments. With business investment growing and rising demand for services and high-tech goods, this should bring about a stronger recovery in service sector jobs."

Robert Bach, Indianapolis-based senior vice president and chief economist for Grubb & Ellis, predicts that in 2011, employers are likely to add 1.5 million payroll jobs nationally. That's right at the level needed to accommodate the growing labor force, but not enough to off set the unemployment rate. This, he says, will generate a modest recovery in the office market. Uncertainty over employer health-care costs could further discourage hiring, especially among small businesses.

"Corporations dealing with these and other challenges will continue to focus on minimizing occupancy costs," Bach explains. He cites this as a major reason that the office market will recover at "half-speed" in 2011.

Given the amount of US debt, Sayres Dudley, a partner at executive search consultant firm Dudley & Associates in Plano, TX, predicts that 2012 might be the year for "a return to some semblance of normalcy." However, it will be a new normal. "Many of those jobs lost will not be replaced," says Dudley. "Contract staffing at all levels will increase. Outsourcing to third-party workforce solution companies will be a growth industry." He explains that in the real estate industry, third party development, project and asset managers will become more common, and many of the big development companies will most likely not replace their mid-management level with permanent people.

Despite the many indications that recovery is under way, many sectors have yet to turn around especially those connected to the housing meltdown, says Jordan Levine, research manager at Beacon Economics. Construction, finance and insurance and real estate continue to shed jobs and remain at or near their lowest level of employment since the recession began, Levine explains. "With household formation slowing dramatically and a large inventory of foreclosures and REO properties remaining in the system, residential permits have yet to increase significantly. Thus we expect to see only modest job growth in these sectors over the next several years."

Levine points out that there are more than six million people who have been unemployed for longer than six months. "Many of these workers will find it difficult to reintegrate into the work force given that a change in industry will be necessary in many cases," he says.

On a positive note, factories are beginning to switch back on, Levine says, which translates to good things across the spectrum for the recovery. "Stronger demand means rising income and profits for firms," he says. "This will generate demand for new workers, which will in turn drive incomes and spending higher." Additionally, he adds, many developing nations in East Asia and elsewhere are also returning to strong growth, which has generated additional demand for US goods and services abroad.

Since mid-2009, industrial production has been rising sharply across the manufacturing sector, explains Levine. Since its trough in June 2009, the Federal Reserve's index of industrial production is up almost 10%. Part of this, he says, is due to strong demand from abroad as other countries recover from the global downturn. "The large injection of cash by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program has resulted in a weakening dollar, which has increased the affordability of US goods and services abroad."

And as the Federal Reserve launches its QE2, the dollar is expected to continue its downward trend, Levine says. "This will keep demand for US exports strong over the next few years and keep the lights on at our nation's factories," he says.

Eventually, efficiency gains will give way to new hiring as industrial capacity reaches critical mass. At what Levine says is 75% of existing capacity, "factories still have some room to grow, but utilization of that capacity is growing quickly. With stronger trade and production, we can expect increased hiring in wholesale trade and transportation and warehousing, and potentially even in manufacturing as demand for US products grows."

With the majority of the short run job growth coming from the professional-service and trade-oriented sectors, the outlook for the commercial real estate market remains mixed, Levine says. "Retail space is well supplied and vacancy rates remain high, but both industrial and office space is showing signs of improvement," he says. "Jobs have certainly stabilized, but we are not forecasting a return to peak employment until at least 2013 and the unemployment rate will remain above 8% through mid-2012." Despite the high vacancy rates in retail, some companies, like Dollar General Corp. for example, are planning to expand. The Goodlettsville, TN-based company plans to open 625 new stores in fiscal 2011, creating 6,000 new jobs. Many of the stores-and jobs-will be spread among Dollar General's existing 35-state operating area, but the company is also expanding into three new states: Connecticut, Nevada and New Hampshire.

According to Rick Dreiling, Dollar General's chair and CEO, the anticipated 6,000 new jobs follow two years of positive job growth for the company. Between 2009 and 2011, Dollar General will have created more than 15,000 new jobs.

Another company not shy about adding employees in a down market is Newport Beach, CA-based Voit Real Estate Services. Last year, the company hired 40 new employees predominantly in its distressed assets services group and expanded to 10 offices, including new California facilities in Sacramento, Commerce and the Inland Empire as well as a location in Phoenix.

Kurt Strasmann, managing director of brokerage services in Voit's Anaheim metro office, says that the company views the current environment as a great opportunity to expand. "Instead of being a follower, if you have the capability, infrastructure and platform in place, ready to meet the demands of your clients, you will receive the business," he explains. "So, from a strategic standpoint, it made sense to ramp up quickly with high-quality people." Strasmann points out that Voit's new hires were a combination of people unemployed employed. "We have lost more than 120,000 jobs in the past three years in Orange County, CA alone," says Strasmann. "This is the first year that people are predicting a gain of 20,000 to 25,000 jobs in the area." He sees those jobs coming from sectors like healthcare, schools, technology, mortgage companies and maybe the government. "Orange County has a diversified base," he says. Since Orange County is typically one of the nation's strongest local economies and a leader in job growth, recovery there could well signal that the nation has started on the long road back to full employment.

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